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Friday, July 24, 2009

07/24/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I don’t know what next Monday will bring us. Some idea about Monday gap up open though:

If we have a gap up open next Monday, then it’d be the 8th gap on the SPY chart.

SPY60min

Also, since Monday gap is also a weekly gap which is very rare. We’ve already got a weekly gap this week, so what the chances might be, we have another weekly gap and it remains unfilled?

NDXWeekly

So the conclusion is that maybe the Monday gap up open, if any, will be filled in a short time therefore bears who sneaked in before the close might have chance to escape unharmed.

Cumulative TICK from www.sentimentrader.com, if someone still is interested, still shows negative divergence.

CumTICK

19 comments:

  1. 老大也累了吧,thanks

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  2. Cobra, will it be too risky to chase high now?
    thanks

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  3. Chase high? I don't know. If you really want to chase, buy a little first and gradually add into it only when it has profits.

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  4. Do you think the current run will touch 1000 before correcting a little? Or will it drop hard, just like Gold did some time ago, at ~990, trapping some buyers.

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  5. Cobra, do you think its a certainty that we trade 1000+ next week ? The bullishness is everywhere.

    All I heard today was that if it wasn't for AMZN or MSFT we would have had a huge upday. But when do people focus on that fact that AMZN and MSFT were real events and that more events like these can keep and even turn the market down ?

    I look at a 10 day moving average of UpVolume/Total Volume, its up there in the high 60% area, very extreme.

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  6. I don't know if it will touch 1,000 before any meaningful correction.

    About a possible correction, just my guess: if we had a one day big drop, that'd be good chance to long because this is how big money scares retailers. If we had a little down day by day, then it might be the real drop because I don't think retailers are this lucky that they got plenty of chances to buy dip.

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  7. Thanks a lot!Cobra! Have a good weekend!

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  8. Thanks for your comments, Cobra. I am a small bear waiting for a chance to get out. The market is way crazy right now. Or is it me who is crazy because I even dare to short the market?

    Lin

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  9. quote "it's the sad nature of the TA: sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't."
    thanks for sharing your opinion, your comment makes perfect sense...
    Bill

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  10. Thanks and have a great weekend.

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  11. The market will turn down next week imo based on resistance on $BANK, negative divergences, $VIX at the 200sma, and many indicators at extremes - plus volume sucks. No bulls are buying, just short covering and it is drying up.

    SEC is also on the warpath to unplug the high frequency illegal program trading front running by GS and the other banksters which causes runs like we've seen in the last 2 weeks to feed on itself. GS and others have placed BOTS in between the bid and ask to skim pennies on every trade and to push prices up in the process. It could be a major blackswan event.

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  12. I think the market will top first week of August 100-102 area. Next week could be in range 97-100

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  13. Hello Cobra, and Schweizer,..

    I have the Tues 07-28 date as a likely change in trend. I had been expecting it to be a LOW,..but most likely (if we are sideways to UP on Monday) it will come in as a HIGH.

    I suspect that 1000 level will act as a magnet.

    Also,..over the weekend, people will see that the market is breaking out, and feel more comfortable going long (from the MM /sidelines) in their mutual fund and retirement accts. I know that does not make sense to us "trader" types, but that is the way mainstream investors think,...the higher the market goes, the more likely they are to add to long positions.

    Sentiment is constructive, with Friday's CBOE P/C ($CPC) firm at 0.93, and ISEE at 109,...levels reflecting some fear and PUT buying,..likely for hedging.

    Weekly sentiment surveys (AAII, Inv Intell readings are subdued, no where near over-believed or extreme levels of bullishness.

    The CBOE WEEKLY Put/Call ratio (from Barron's) is 0.66 (last week was 0.63) and this is a neutral or normal level. Ditto for the Consensus Survey % Bulls on Stocks,..most recently at 46%, up from 40% the previous week....again, no where near an "over-believed" level.

    So my bias is for a sideways to higher close on Monday into a Tuesday HIGH. Too many traders looking for an entry to short,...too many investors on the sidelines who have missed the upmove, and will buy in out of frustration at higher price.

    My next 3 wk cycle date is Thurs 07-30 (a likely pivot date -- being 13 mkt days from previous pivot on Mon 07-13),...so Thurs 07-30 may be a short term LOW if we turn down on Tuesday. Will wait to see what direection we take into the 07-30 time frame.

    Thanks for the sharing of work and ideas.

    Regards, Jim P.

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  14. Cobra, your posts are pure and natural. I allways chase this blog before commercial starts !
    Thanks for your time here !

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