07/27/2009 Market Recap: CPCE too low

Summary:

Could be a down day tomorrow.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Up	Overbought
Short-term	Up	Overbought

Because the final correct CPCE chart from www.stockcharts.com is only available after 7:40pm ET, so today’s After Bell Quick Summary missed an important readings: CPCE < 0.56. This reading should have cancelled the 2 bullish effects caused by CPC < 0.8, which are 77% chances a green close next day and a firework thereafter. So CPCE < 0.56 plus “both SPX and VIX are green on the same day”, now it looks like higher chances a red close tomorrow.

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, from this chart we can see that whenever CPCE < 0.56, the next day wasn’t very pleasant. Also about CPCE here are some statistics: Equity Put/Call Ratio Suggests Down Day.

7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, from this chart we can see that CPCE has higher priority, even CPC is bullish.

7.3.2 Firework Trading Setup, likewise, CPCE has higher priority.

Nothing else to say. Lots of Elliott Wave analysts have predicted a final push up then a bigger pullback and then a new high. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), a smaller Bearish Rising Wedge could be formed, plus lots of negative divergences, so it supports what Elliott Wave says: a pullback is very close.

T2103 Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, still overbought.

T2122 4 week New High/Low Ratio from Telechart, the overbought worked even in the most bullish period. But from this chart, the market may still have a little up room though.