OK, my face is a little hurt today (slapped by the market AGAIN) because the SPX finally closed 0.73 point higher, hmm, hey, Nasdaq did close in red, well, no excuse, wrong is wrong, even SPX closed 0.73 point lower, it’s still far less than I’d expected. But just take a second look at my CPCE chart, what had happened last time it went wrong? So I’d risk my face again for next Monday, after all, my face has been hurt a lot ever since I started this blog, so it already gets so used to it… LOL
Here’s another reason that we might see a red Monday: Both VIX and SPX were green today, by counting red vertical lines below, 9 of 12 times, the next day was closed in red. Plus several other reliable overbought signals which I’ll talk in the weekend report…
Take a look at the intraday VIX, all of sudden it rose a lot, got to be something happened. If I remember correctly, this kind of sudden rise or fall has been a very reliable leading indicator recently.
One question for you which I don’t have any answers: Why did TLT rise this much recently? Since most people now believe we’ll see SPX 1200 pretty soon, why bother buying bond which may go sharply lower if SPX does go to 1200?
Have a nice weekend!
Thank you as always! Have a nice weekend!
ReplyDeleteThanks Cobra! Enjoying to read anything you write here.
ReplyDelete明修栈道，暗渡陈仓。
ReplyDeleteGreat point about TLT, especially given the weakness in $USD. Take a look at the SPY/TLT ratio. It finally hooked down after a wicked move higher all month. I don't know if it has any meaningful implications for SPY going forward but maybe someone woke up and decided that 4.5% yield on treasuries might not be so bad in the new normal world. Maybe someone will wake up some day soon and decide that 18 times consensus 2009 earnings is a little rich for equities.
ReplyDeleteVIX rose sharply in the afternoon because there was a large upside call buyer in SPX and an absence of liquidity on Friday afternoon at month end.
ReplyDeleteMarket is going to 11.5k by September 15.
ReplyDeletethx,ding
ReplyDeleteTo make money you have to go with the trend. Most blogs I follow are on the bear side. Why try to pick the top like catching a falling knife? Just follow the herds and try not to be the last one out. Sometimes, TAs just doesn't work. The more TAs you look at, the more emotional you get!!! Sometimes, you just have to block out all the information out there and go with the flow.
ReplyDeleteDon't worry, volume was so low today, markets had to close higher. Besides this, don't forget market manipulation done by computer buy program every day after 3PM (refer to plunge protection team). One day or another, everything will come back to normal. Markets are artificially maintained to a level in order to keep people happy, let them spend and bring the economy out of recession. Meanwhile banks can continue to offer bonuses...
ReplyDeleteCobra, thanks.
ReplyDeleteI think there might be two notable factors, among others, contributing to TLT's rally today:
1) Fed purchased a lot of treasuries today.
2) The worry about inflation is abated somehow, thanks to the less-than-expected consumer spending reading in GDP report.
But in the meantime, I can't explain why oil and gold jumped this much today.
USD took hit today.
ReplyDeleteoil and gold rose.
Because they are buying Treasuries at the end of the month with their 401K and not Equities.
ReplyDeleteCobra laoda.
ReplyDeleteThe $bpspx is 73.6 today, looks like to be a top in forming if not formed already, hoho.
The last 2 peaks were 74.8 and 74.4.
The reason most blogs are bearish is that they're published by people who view the facts and try to examine them in an unbiased fashion. A trend is a trend but I want to capitalize on the middle 80% of a move and a site like this does a great job of presenting the technical evidence with a modicum of bias. Maybe we've topped and maybe we haven't but I applaud someone who can come up with reasons to justify a view. Clearly, it's been easier follow than to predict a real turn but things are never this easy for very long.
ReplyDeletethanks a lot as always, cobra.
ReplyDeleteCobra, I believe bonds always lead stocks. Whatever price action happens in TLT (I'm long since last month) the stocks will follow and not vice versa. Bond traders don't give a it on the stock market.
ReplyDeleteBebut
Humorous, impressive, persistent, and excellent.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
ZJ
Cobra
ReplyDeleteI stole this chart from you but noticed one thing;
(I cannot copy & paste here but if you go to www.stockstop.org/viewforum.php?f=2 and check the thread "stole this from cobra", you'll see what I mean, regarding your NYDNV:NYUPV chart).
Basically, I think I see the exact same pattern of accumulation as we saw with distribution down to the lows in march.
You are great Cobra!
ReplyDeleteThe Ndx closed the gap today...
Tks for all, have a great weekend :-)
Stocks, gold, and oil rose and held gains - indicating that the inflation/reflation trade is still on. But long rates sank steadily after a good 7-year auction - a sign that investors are more swayed by the deflationary side of the argument. The only thing that reconciles these apparent discrepancies is massive intervention by non-traditional market forces: governments.
ReplyDeleteCould one or more of our creditor countries be systematically converting their dollars to real stuff and US stocks - even while continuing to support our debt?? That's what I would do were I them and that is my working conspiracy theory until I hear a better one.
Also, if massive amounts of dollars were being converted to stuff, shouldn't one of the tells be a weakening dollar?
Dumping US$ and buying stocks? You've got to be kidding! Jumping from safe to risky stuff?
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDelete$CBCE on stockcharts website says it closed at .64, and I double checked on the CBOE website, same thing, .64. yours says .79, how could this be? Sure does make a BIG difference, concerning the trendline, doesn't it. Gee I hope you don't want to intentionally misguide your readers into thinking it broke out of the trendline. I am starting to think many of these blogs are managed by a couple of Goldman Sachs interns sitting in a backroom, being told to post the opposite of the next day's moves.
Yes, CPCE did close at 0.64. Check my chart 2.8.0. I said, because of the stockcharts.com's data feed problem, CPCE/CPCI readings aren't correct until 7:40pm ET. When you saw my chart on this post, it was before 7:40pm ET. Now go check my chart, you will see if sits at 0.64 now.
ReplyDeleteMe XMan I disagree with you, dollars aren't going to be worth anything because you can print as many as you can. Food, cars, drugs, airplanes, those are real existing stuff that you'll always need.
ReplyDeleteIf I were CHINA I would be buying business after business with my trillions of dollars while people still accept them :-)
Why do you say business is risky stuff? Is Apple risky? Or Boeing? McDonalds? Verizon? Don't think so...
Hello Cobra,
ReplyDeleteFirst time at your blog. Congrats! very good work!
I agree there are interesting and maybe telling moves in bonds
Since Wed I am having some signals
http://screencast.com/t/XLrjvlCU
BONDS-EQUITIES correlation tested again
Big pic view
http://screencast.com/t/Rp86gM8I
Close up view , interesting for the ST
http://screencast.com/t/sqLFLFI3R
I liked also you interest in looking for correlations between instruments and statistical value of some moves (VIX-SPX)
ReplyDeleteHere is something about NDX
http://screencast.com/t/5CSHMmYTlJG
Patacon, thanks. Great info!
ReplyDeletePatacon,
ReplyDeletethanks for sharing
i hope to see the market sell-off big time with a 300 to 400 drop... if only to shut the mouths of some of the CNBC bulls, they are really pissing me off... ie: kudlow, cramer, and mark haynes, (mark's claim to fame is his failure as an attorney, as well as clueless market savvy.)
ReplyDeleteCNBC europe/UK and CNBC asia doesn't seem to share the same bias reporting... they seem to give a more balance point of view..