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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

12/10/2008 Market Recap: No Title

Today not much to talk about, it's just a consolidation before the catalyst upside breakout or falling down to hell.  However, the final result is unknown at the moment.  On the chart, either bulls or bears can find signals favors them, but bulls' signals are more short term, so I guess the market could go up tomorrow morning.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  As said yesterday, this is a typical consolidation, and the small candle can extend further until it breaks out at one direction.  Note the bottom of the chart, NYMO is still overbought which is good news for bears.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1665 stocks price up volume down, very bearish, and this is also good news for bears.

3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio.  This is my biggest concern.  Yen is becoming stronger with respect to US dollar and Euro, and this is bearish to the stock market.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  Take a look at the support level, which still hold, good.  If it gets tested the third time, however, the chance of being hold is close to zero.  The positive divergence on the chart favors bulls.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  MACD, RSI and ChiOsc are all positive divergence, so the possibility of rally in the near term is relatively higher.


5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).  You may notice that Financials are quite weak.  The chart is roughly a test back after the breakout.  Furthermore, two down days couldn't even claim the gain in two previous up days, which is not so bad.


1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min).  Canadian market doesn't look so good.  Bearish rising wedge, MACD and RSI show negative divergence on the daily chart.  1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily), four days of up trend failed to compete the previous four days of down trend, very bearish.



  1. Nice work Cobra,
    please keep it up.
    I dont use as many indicators as you but generally I read the charts in a similar manner and like to confirm your work against my own.

    On an intermediate term I do think the light volume sell off vs the slightly bigger volume of the up days is v bullish. Of course it only takes 1 big down day on big volume to kill the trend but I am cautiously optimistic here.

  2. HaHa,,good job Cobra,,,this time we showed them, charts can suggest
    a direction to consider..


  3. Great work, Cobra..

    Could you please post your comments little early - I mean by 8 PM CST?

    Thank you.

  4. Sorry, I'm afraid, I cannot. By the time I finishes the Chinese version, it's usually around mid night. Then my friend in the west coast, has to help me translating it into English (as I'm very exhausted at that time). So really, it's very difficult for me to do that. Hope you could understand.

  5. One last comment,,

    Cobra with the drop in the spy after hours to 85.83, will that change flag set up???

    Surly we have a gap down?


  6. Mac, could mean the bull flag failed. But we have to wait until tomorrow, anything could happen overnight. Right now, I'm really worried about auto bailout, if failed tomorrow, maybe another 777 points drop again.



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