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Sunday, December 28, 2008

12/26/2008 Market Recap: Mixed Signals

Very thin volume Friday, so the Friday's market action may mean nothing. However the fact that the market has been up for 2 days in a row but still couldn't recover the previous 1 day drop, may mean that bears have the up hand. Now bulls must, for the rest of 3 days in 2008, fully recover the previous 5 down days. It seems a little difficult to me. 2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio has pointed a market top while 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume still yells a market bottom, I don't know which one is telling the truth, just let the market come to us: SPX breaks above 920 then intermediate-term up, breaks bellow 850 then intermediate-term down. Monday, because the Energy sector might rebound, so the overall market has a chance to go up.


8.1.2 Does extremely low CPC lead a market top?, because the extreme values of CPC vary in different period, "Normalized CPC" is used, which is the distance between MA10 and MA200. From the chart we can see, in bear market, 100% chances, an extremely low CPC value led to a market top.


8.0.1 Use NATV/NYTV to catch the market top/bottom, pay attention to the dashed green lines, still for "Normalized NATV:NYTV", the current low readings, 100% chances, mean a market bottom.


Oh, one hint: almost everyone uses CPC to check the market top/bottom while it seems I'm the only one who uses NATV:NYTV to check the market top/bottom.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, could be a Bull Flag, plus a low reading on STO, short-term bulls still have chances.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), possible Ascending Triangle, so might close green again on Monday. However, because the overbought readings on STO and TICK, the market might open low or pullback in the morning.


3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), as mentioned in the previous report, the current position of RSI and STO usually mean a few days bounce.


5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily), STO and ChiOsc indicate a potential bounce and since the energy sector weights heavily in the SPX, so as long as the financial sector doesn't drop too much, the overall market will go up.



  1. Did you miss a recent sell signal on the SP bulluish percents chart? Looks like all three BP indexes went below the MA.

  2. No I didn't miss the BPSPX sell signal. The sell signal must be confirmed by BPINDU and BPCOMPQ at the same time. Right now BPINDU dosen't confirm so the BPSPX sell signal is not valid.

  3. Since 11/24 Nasdaq has been up 13 days & down 11. If you've never had beef jerky, this is it.




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