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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

12/16/2008 Market Recap: No Breakout Yet

Are bulls happy today? Well, technically, not out of the woods yet, as still no higher high today and intermediate-term still could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. Tomorrow, because RSI on SPX 30 min and 15 min char are pretty overbought, plus extreme readings on TICK, so the market may at least have either a morning or an intraday pullback.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, the question of Ascending Triangle or Rising Wedge still not resolved. VIX ENV close to oversold and NYMO overbought so if again rise big tomorrow, bulls better take some profits.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), RSI overbought and the blue curve of the TICK is a little bit too high, so a pullback is due.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), RSI way too overbought and ChiOsc is at the level which generally is not sustainable.



3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily), Yen had a big day today, it's a good news for the stock market as Yen is overbought and therefore due for a pullback. 3.2.4 Japanese Yen and the Market Top/Bottom, if have time, take a look at this chart, it is probably still applicable that RSI of Yen overbought means a market bottom. But, since the interest rate of US$ is almost zero now, I'm not sure if "Carry Trade" should become meaningless and therefore the Yen can no longer be used as a market indicator. We will see.



  1. hey cobra,

    what the hell is going on w yen?
    v strange. I dont know much about this money flow but I am relying less and less on bond yields and yen.

    from a distance, while I have limited understanding of economics it looks v freakish and ultimately extremely unhealthy.


  2. I don't understand eco either, so the same as you, I have no idea what's going on now with bond.

  3. It's NOT about the yield or ROI; it's about the STORAGE/safekeeping of one's cash by the US Treasury. Think about this. If you had 5 or $10 mln in 1 or 2 large banks that you previously thought were safe. Other than maybe 5 banks that the US Govt won't let fail where are you going to keep it (all of it)in this post WaMu; post IndyMac era ? What if none of the big 5 are in your area ? Spreading 10 mln physically around 40 different banks in order to fly under FDIC is a hassle.

    As for today 12/17, will today be an Island Top or a continuation gap for TLT ? We should find out tomorrow - stay tuned.


  4. Yeah, about TLT, I have the same thoughts. Thanks.



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