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Monday, December 29, 2008

12/29/2008 Market Recap: Guppy Multiple Moving Average

Not much to say today, light volume, no direction. Tomorrow, the market might open lower or pullback in the morning. Noticed that recently the market tends to open high, sell off most of the day and pump up before the close, so if the market opens high again I suspect if it will sell off again, otherwise it seems too easy for bears.


0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, I've re-grouped the signals, now we have short-term buy/sell signals. The basic idea is to long when there's a buy signal, take partial profit when overbought signals appear and close long take short when there's a sell signal. Well, since they're mechanical signals which tend to have whipsaws, so you have to decide by yourself whether to trust these signals.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), STO and TICK overbought so that's why I said the market might open low or have a pullback in the morning. For bulls, although MACD, RSI positive divergence may look good but be prepared for the potential "Descending Triangle" breakdown.


Guppy Multiple Moving Average, the long term moving averages in pink represent huge overhead resistance (the wider between each pink line the heavier the resistance), the short term moving averages in brown have tried twice to break these pink lines but the pink lines remain almost intact (no sign of contracting which means the resistance is weakening). So it's quite understandable the sideway actions of the current market as the overhead resistance is too heavy. Comparing this with what had happened in August, where even the pink lines were not as thick as those of now, still after six tries in vain to break them, the brown lines had to give up. What I'm trying to say here is, it takes significant buying in order for the market to go up and unfortunately so far till now, I don't see those buying. So bulls, be patient and be prepared for the worst.



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