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Monday, May 11, 2009

05/11/2009 Market Recap: Orderly Retreat

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought According to $NYA50R, market might be topped.
Short-term Up Neutral  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary

Orderly retreat, expect more pullback ahead.

7.1.2 NYSE - TICK (30 min), not a single –1,000 TICK readings today, which means no panic, so either today’s pullback is a bear trap or more pullback ahead. The last time the same thing happened was 01/09/2009 Market Recap: Orderly Retreat, in which I was expecting more pullback. I’m not sure if we’re repeating the last time now, but my guess is that it’s unlikely a bear trap, because from the CPCI, the big money continues to hedge risks, while from CPCE, retailers are extremely bullish.


2.8.2 Normalized CPCI:CPCE, should enough show the differences between the big money and the retailers.


2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, retailers are extremely bullish.


Also, don’t forget, 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), there’re still 6 unfilled gaps, so if it’s a bear trap then tomorrow should open with an up gap, but my question is: will this 7th gap be able to hold?


So the conclusion is probably more pullback ahead.


1.0.6 XLY:XLP, this is the 2nd intermediate-term sell signal listed in 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights. In chart 7.2.3 Intermediate-term Trading Rule, I’ve compared  the results when under a primary down trend, which is better, to follow an intermediate-term buy signal or to follow an intermediate-term sell signal. The conclusion is to follow the sell signal is better.



  1. Very good job


  2. Cobra, solid points but waiting and watching futures trading down a little...please look at s&p daily candles for March 26 & 27, 2009...any similarites to last two days except for lighter volume...then look at next trading day March 30, 2009...any chance of a repeat with two back-to-back red candle days?

  3. From my experiences, similarity usually doesn't work. The most bear can expect tomorrow is a small bar consolidation day, I guess.

  4. thank-you, like everybody hoping to add longs on 5%-10% pullbacks until 5,10,20ema trends reverse.

  5. Cobra,
    intraday i watched$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p81577578318
    the put to call ratio of sentiment was bearish most of the day with readings of 70 to 79 noted...
    the higher bearish readings most likely changed the last half hour of trading.... since this is option X week, i'm not too surprised by these wide swings between the bull and bear sentiment... what are your thoughts??

  6. Cobra,
    the reason TA doesn't work well now is because we switched from deflationary to infalationary phase. The same way (but opposite) was later part of 2008 when inflation turned into deflation screwing everythink in the markets.
    To me, this suggests that we are in the 2003 analogy and you should get a shallow missing shoulder for your inverse H&S.

  7. I don't konow about your theory in option X week but I'll sure remember your words about wide swings. Thanks.

  8. bearish sentiment is back 8 minutes after the open...$CPCE=.70$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p57323774597

  9. Do I win Yet?

    No more people telling me I don't know about support/resistance... MIT... Technical Analysis?

    Not to be a Hedger. but there is always a chance of one more Push...

  10. Cobra,

    Looks like ur wrong this time...A bear more final push to spx 950ish


  11. No, it's not a bear trap, bears have plenty of time to position themselves today. I'm right about today's call. Today again, there's no sellings, this tells me that at least officially the downtrend hasn't started yet. I'm expecting an up day tomorrow, but how high tomorrow goes, will tell us lots of things.

  12. Oops, wrong ID, anyway, Yong is Cobra. Cheers!

  13. Cobra,

    isn't that's what a bear trap is, selling has not started yet.




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