Live Update

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Institutional Buying and Selling Trending

As per request here is the most recent institutional buying and selling chart from



  1. Thank You Sir!!!

  2. Cobrs,
    Thanks for posting this.
    This is an interesting juncture as it mimics the end of Sept 2008 situation. Combined with the explosive optimism in the markets, it should be clearly a major topping action. What happens next should be very telling, because if the consolidation is muted (as it has been so far), this argues this is 2003 again and the markets will rally for several more months to come. We should know very soon.

    Another question is: while the institutional buying dropped dramatically in the last several weaks the markets did not ease that much. Who picked up the slack in the buying? Retail investors? Banks? Fed?


  3. In order for the market to fall, distribution must rise. It didn't rise much so that's why the market held well. The decline of the accumulation in this case doesn't matter. On the other hand, in order for the market to rise, the accumulation must rise, distribution doesn't matter. That's my observation.

  4. @ Anonymous

    Probably the Fed...

    The secondary offering from the banks is done now. Look out below...

  5. How do you know the 2nd offering is done?

  6. Dave,

    The secondary offerings by the banks is only a piece of the puzzle--improve banks capital reserves/balance sheets. The floor is not ready to drop out from under this market. We're still trying to instill confidence in the populous and so far it is working. People are tired of this recession want to move forward whereas a another huge drop in people's net worth will reverse all progress thus far and the gov't has already spent too much money propping these markets to turn back now. There is no doubt the financial elite want to reinflate this credit bubble rather than risk losing their power from populous outrage. If you don't believe me, then keep watching as "too big to fail" banks get bigger.

    {A guy could hardly do worse than put all his money into GS now that 70% of their competition has been obliterated. Even the head at the NY Fed was buying GS at $50 while policies were being discussed. Also notice how GS bottomed before 03/09 when everybody else did? Anyway, I digress. The point is to get onboard for now until the real economy and fundamentals overpower the charade.}

    Moving on, the key data point to watch now is 10yr auctions results. Geithner is heading to China to beg them to take on more debt and if successful, I want to be in position for the (potentially huge) run up in equities as institutions and hedge funds no longer have excuses for being underinvested head of stepping over the 200MA. If not successful (highly unlikely), be sure your trailing stops are in place.

    Look, the bears have had ample opportunity to step on the bulls' necks, but it hasn't happened. These markets won't drop big until there are no more bears. For your investments, just go long and put in trailing stops. For your day trading, keep doing whatever, but with a slightly bullish bias. Short but don't short hard or you'll just give your money to me in whipsaw action.

    Other than that, remain vigilant. Don't just blindly follow the pack. Be ready to step aside if/when this all ends badly.

    Best to all,

  7. Dave (et al.), Being right isn't enough. Execution is critical. Understand the game that is being played and then exploit it. You, me, and anyone with half a brain is already three months behind on on capturing life changing gains. We've already missed out, so when the rules change, you have to be nimble; not stubborn. Your time will come. Get ready.

    Thank you,

  8. ADD,

    FYI, I just recently went short.

    IMO, the Fed, GS and JPM can keep this propped up for awhile, but eventually the HFs and other parties will eat their lunch.

    The fact that this run up is being sustained artificially will just result in a bigger decline.

    Just a matter of time. IMHOP.

  9. Cobra,
    I am VERY interested in tracking the Institutional Buying and Selling Chart that you posted yesterday. I signed up today with for a "free membership".
    Will that Institutional Buying and Selling Chart be available to me with that membership??

    Thank you for your reply,

    Ken B.

  10. Ken, I don't think you can get it for free but the basic membership is enough.



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