07/12/2010 Market Recap: Ascending Triangle in Rising Wedge

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode Short-term   4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Long on 07/07, hold overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/11,07/24-07/28 07/11 / 07/23 07/12, 07/16, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/12

BULLISH BEARISH *0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: A little low, may mean a top.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model     *Short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close. The stop loss will be 1.9xATR(10).

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: EARLY THIS WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH

See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HUGE REBOUND BEFORE 2ND LEG DOWN

Still expect a 2nd leg down but since the retailers sentiment is way too bearish so the rebound we have now could be huge. See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE NEW RECOVERY HIGH BEFORE PULLING BACK

Maintain the forecast for mini price target at SPX 1099 and time target around 07/16 (See  07/09 Market Recap for more details).

1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), a small Ascending Triangle in a little bigger bearish Rising Wedge, so we may see one more push up tomorrow morning. If the push up is not strong then the bigger bearish Rising Wedge will be in charge later. So very short-term we could see SPY rise then fall (may not fall tomorrow though).

 

0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume, this also argues for a short-term top, so SPX rises tomorrow but NYTV falls again, bulls better be careful.

  

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565. 6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black may mean short-term top is very close.
IWM	DOWN	Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP	Testing support.
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Be careful of the non-confirmation of SLV and GDX.
GDX	UP
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.