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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

07/14/2010 Market Recap: Key Day Tomorrow

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY    
Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode
Short-term 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL *No position now. The trend is still up though.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
*07/14-07/17 07/25 / 07/23 07/16, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/16
BULLISH 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom when 2 MAD within 5 days?
BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low.
07/13 Market Recap: Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick is way too high.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 06/30 S N/A *Cover short and long tomorrow. For general market direction guide only.
Be sure to check
8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.
ST Model     *Setup mentioned on 07/13 was not confirmed and therefore no long valid.
*You may want to short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close, but unless tomorrow down big, otherwise SPY ST Model will be in BUY mode.
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: EARLY THIS WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH

See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HUGE REBOUND BEFORE 2ND LEG DOWN

Still expect a 2nd leg down but since the retailers sentiment is way too bearish so the rebound we have now could be huge. See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: MARKET MAY TURN DOWN SOON UNLESS UP HUGE TOMORROW

Time, price and price pattern all are arguing that the market may turn lower very soon, unless the market could up huge tomorrow. So a key day tomorrow.

The chart below contains the bull’s best hopes. Up huge tomorrow then most likely we’re going to see the last year’s mad cow again. In this case, forget about all the other blah blah I said in today’s report. If however, a small bar tomorrow, then be careful, chances a very good we may see a little bit bigger pullback thereafter.

NYADVWatch 

RSI now has a little little bit negative divergence, fulfilled the pre-condition required for a sizable pullback. The divergence may appear not large enough so combining with the chart above – extreme high NYADV MA(5) almost guarantees a new recovery high, so chances are pretty good that SPX will make a new recovery high (higher than the Tuesday’s high) tomorrow.

RSIWatch 

OK, all the good news for bulls ends above. To summarize, a new recovery high is very possible but if the market cannot up big then bulls should be careful about a potential big pullback.

Now the bear’s turn. Why am I saying the market may turn lower soon?

Price and time target both fulfilled, especially the time, 07/16 is very close now.

TimeAndTarget 

The Multiple Gann Day below also argues that around 07/16 could be very important.

GannDay 

For price pattern, now SPY is testing its primary bear trend line. A Hollow Red bar (Close > Open but Close < Yesterday’s Close) could be a potential reversal bar.

SPYShortTerm 

VIX leads SPX.

VIXLeadsSPX 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, looks like a typical breakdown then back test before going down further. TNX usually leads SPX, so it’s not a good news for the stock market.

TNXDaily 

The weekly chart should be more clear on why TNX leads SPX and why the line that was broken and now retested is very important.

WLSHandTNX 

Last but not the least, starting from tomorrow, seasonality won’t be so bull friendly anymore. And also don’t forget the WOW I mentioned in the yesterday’s report.

Seasonality 


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

  TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ DOWN 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM DOWN
CHINA DOWN
EMERGING UP
EUROPEAN UP 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA DOWN 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND UP
EURO UP
GOLD UP 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX UP
OIL DOWN
ENERGY DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS DOWN
REITS DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS DOWN 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

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