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SEASONALITY: EARLY THIS WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH
See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HUGE REBOUND BEFORE 2ND LEG DOWN
Still expect a 2nd leg down but since the retailers sentiment is way too bearish so the rebound we have now could be huge. See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW BUT AFTER THAT THERE’LL BE A NEW RECOVERY HIGH
See chart below, the mini price target mentioned in 07/09 Market Recap has fulfilled today. Now the question is whether the rebound is over?
Still remember the argument mentioned in the 07/09 Market Recap for “rebound isn’t over”? No RSI negative divergence at that time, right? So, let’s check if we have negative divergence now. See chart below, not yet, at least not visible, right? So, most likely the rebound isn’t over, right?
0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing, see what happened when NYADV MA(5) sit at an extreme high level like today? Although chances are very good a red day tomorrow but a new high is almost guaranteed thereafter, right?
So, the conclusion is the rebound isn’t over yet. Maintain the time target around 07/16 and upgrade the price target to SPX 1111ish.
For tomorrow, as mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, a little little bit bearish. Also the NYADV MA(5) chart above argues for a red day tomorrow. I know the INTC ER in AH makes a red day tomorrow almost unbelievable. Well, let’s see what happened on INTC ER Day (courtesy of Bespoke). Most likely open high then close low, right? So how the overall market is going to close tomorrow is hard to say, right?
Still not convinced? Well, here’s a heavy bomb: a big WOW – Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick (courtesy of sentimentrader) is way too high again. This chart doesn’t necessarily mean a red day tomorrow but the market all had a big pullback after the previous 9 WOWs. (See 06/30 Market Recap, 06/25 Market Recap, 06/02 Market Recap, 05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap)
The bottom line, whether a red day or not tomorrow isn’t important. As long as now you know the WOW. As long as you’ve noticed that chart 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator and 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals are very close to an extreme level. So a green day tomorrow is even better if you’re bull, because you have one extra day to be prepared. On the other hand, if you really really feel that you’ve missed the northern train here, now, feel pressure no more, just be sure at the time when the tenth WOW indeed takes effect you still have the courage to believe what I said today: a new recovery high is ahead.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| TREND | COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. | |
| QQQQ | DOWN | 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565. |
| IWM | DOWN | |
| CHINA | DOWN | |
| EMERGING | UP | |
| EUROPEAN | UP | 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45. |
| CANADA | DOWN | 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30. |
| BOND | UP | |
| EURO | UP | *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means UUP up therefore EURO pullback tomorrow. |
| GOLD | UP | 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. |
| GDX | UP | |
| OIL | DOWN | |
| ENERGY | DOWN | 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14. |
| FINANCIALS | DOWN | |
| REITS | DOWN | 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness! |
| MATERIALS | DOWN | 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27. |
