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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

06/16/2009 Institutional Buying and Selling Trending

OK, the most recent Institutional Buying and Selling Trending from Just a little bit distribution…


Also from today’s Rhodes report:

yesterday there is enormous chatter coming
out of the Chicago Board Options Exchange over a trader
putting on a rather large $850k in premium for a July VIX
call spread – which implies a rather “large” market swan
dive over the coming 41-days. The trader bought 20,000
of the July 45 calls and sold the July 55 calls for a “net”
42.5 cents – this means the VIX must be at 45.42 before
this trader earns even one cent on the trade. Some certainly
seems to be sure that a larger decline is directly ahead –
and very sharp one at that given the VIX is only trading at
30 at the present time. The last time the VIX was at 45 was
the week of March 27th…when the S&P was in the low-


  1. H.R. 1207 gaining momentum and stabilizing economy might be good reason for JP Morgan and GS to stop supporting the market.

    I see lot of retail buying the dips last few days may also be good time to get out long.

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  3. Cobra, thanks very much for posting this report. It provides a lot of insight of what the smart money is doing. Much appreciated! Richrd

  4. Cobra,

    I think the big up day will be tomorrow..not today..


  5. Is it coming 41-"trading"-days? Isn't July expiration on 17th of that month?

  6. Cobra, I guess you are right! Today might not be the big day up, well obviously not now... :)

    But notice intra-day ISEE (indicies/ETF) again, is above 100! Guess who bought those calls right at morning are taking pains now...

    But it seems we are finishing 5 wave from 950s and we are in wave 5 now. So either we bounce at end of day or like you said, tomorrow will be a big day up!


  7. If the financials are done with their secondary offerings, it's look out belooooooowww...

    Next stop, SP 880 or lower.

  8. Cobra, can option expiration week lead to strange CPC/CPCE results that can't be trusted? Today's CPCE sure looks bearish after yesterday's bullish divergence.

  9. Yes, OE may affect CPC/CPCE, but generally I don't consider this kind of factor.

  10. Tushar, I didn't pay attention to his "41" days, I just mean to let you know his idea. :-)

  11. Tush, I think VIX options settle July 15th. I could be wrong.

  12. Hmmm...Core PPI was negative again. That denotes a deflationary argument vs. Inflationary that folks are using to suck more money into the capital markets. Core CPI tomorrow will determine market direction. If that is decidedly deflationary will the markets think that is good as it would point more to a stagflationary scenario vs. the absurd inflationary ideas being perpetuated? Inflation is predicated on consumers (70% of GDP) going out and spending money. That will be a tad bit hard to do with high gas prices, high interest rates (now its harder to refi), dropping home values, and high unemployment (2/3 permanently lost). How does this economic environment contain green shoots is beyond me. IMHO, the market is realizing that the green shoots were growing out of the BS spewed forth by CNBC and other folks (Tarp Banks needing to Raise Capital???) with a vested economic interest in "revising" important data rather than simply reporting information as it is. "Was lower but better than expected", and other such tripe made me cringe each time I heard it. Any serious investor will read the actual reports and see that we are still in dire economic straits and WORSENING not "leveling out". The May 345,000 jobs lost number excitement was kinda cooled when you read the next paragraph in the report that says 787,000 jobs were lost for the month of May. Folks would normally drive the market up 250 pts on that "green shoot". When the Market Yawned....that was the indicator we were turning....


  13. Michael, thanks! Really appreciate it.

  14. Cobra...thanks. I avidly check your site as I believe you are pretty spot on with your analysis. I look more at Macro picture and trade with the trend. Nice ID the trend pretty good. Thanks for all you do...


  15. Thanks to Tony and Cobra; appreciate it.

  16. thanks for the chart,

    does anybody know how to replicate that on a daily basis (via stockcharts or other free sites)?

    thank you in advance!



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