Live Update

Thursday, June 25, 2009

06/25/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I see a good chance a pullback tomorrow, details will be discussed in tonight’s report.

According to “N vs N”  rule, bulls have spent 3 days, still couldn’t break above SPX 927, so this is still a sell-able bounce.


Some discussion in my Chinese forum about All Up Day today which if turned out to be true then we’d see a big down day tomorrow. But, sorry bears, the US$ missed by one point so strictly speaking, today is not an All Up Day. But, I think that the very essence of an All Up Day is still presented today: The market is more likely in a transition state when the normal inter-market relationships are totally out of order as we see today that commodity, bond, stock and US$ (well, missed one point) all rose. So although no good news for bears, but personally, I’m not convinced by today’s rally.



  1. 827 sounds like 927, a lot of thanks.

  2. since 1975, there have been 11 times the S&P closed >+2%, but TRIN > 1.0. Next 2 days, S&P down all 11 times, avg -2.9%.

  3. Cobra, thanks for what you do in this blog, great information and I hope more and more people will visit this site to make it a great TA trading site.

  4. Thanks a lot Cobra!!!

  5. Thanks for your post Cobra.
    My english isn`t perfect sorry for that.
    Only more 2 cents.

    Close today 920.26(+19.32)
    Spx close below 935 so nothing new.
    Below 935 I expect [790,820] medium term.

    Today break 911 hourly/daily and is now testing important resistance.
    I suspected yesterday that the market should go up, because if you see my post/chart spx had divergence bullish stochastic daily.
    So now bulls will try to break this important range [935-921].

    I suspected that spx will turn around soon.
    Don`t forget today vix fall 15% and made new lows of the year again = This is very bery bearish I see spx only at 920 made 956.
    Important tomorrow watch macd hourly. New sell signal macd hourly with confirm lower high and we will testing again range [880-893] or we will break last down swing and see my medium term target [790-820.

    Suport 910 resistance between [935-921]

    Trades big picture
    Open Last week short at 941 close 902 (80% of my position) and I will initiating short positions again.
    See the table of trades at the end of the blog.
    Any position of trading I will post here realtime.
    Click to zoom in.
    Any comments are welcome
    Bis trades for all.

  6. Click ads to support this blog. Many thanks to Cobra!

  7. Carlos, thanks for the update, really appreciate it. And yes, VIX and Volume were 2 big issues today which I'll discuss tonight.

  8. Is today's up related to the quarter end window dressing

  9. Cobra, I'm looking at SPX 60 mins charts and seeing sign of H&S pattern being developed. I think we run to 927 and KABOOM LOL

  10. Sorry my english cobra thanks for your comments.

  11. Very good your chart
    Yes that is momentum days up days down.
    And yes we can open short but have to thing just like that. 875 are the the key. Bear have to put some money in pocket when market down.
    Was my secret last 8 weeks. tomorrow we going down again. Many trades waiting 927.
    Vix drop today 15% and spx close at the high of the session. For me that is bearish. Moviment counter-trend (short-term) 1 - 3 days.

  12. I saw window dressing too. I think the down leg is intact and developing. Sorry, maybe just my bear eyses. LOL!
    What I really concern is if the long trend line from may 08 high and sept 08 high will be smashed in this bounce.

  13. By the way, I have to say your market view is awesome!

  14. Thanks for you comments, I found this article helpful. I have bookmarked your website and shall be reading more articles so as to brush up my knowledge of stock markets.



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