Live Update

Thursday, June 18, 2009

06/18/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I don’t see much edge for either bulls or bears tomorrow. From, statistically, triple witch OE is bullish 78% of the time since 1982. But the intraday model is very close to an overbought level which should give bears some credit tomorrow.


I have noticed a possible change in character as the rebound is so far very weak which is quite different from what we have used to be ever since the March. Giving the fact that the institution is putting more on distribution than accumulation (see:, so better be careful of buying the dips.


  1. What is your opinion of next week's bond auction?

  2. Bond auction again next week? I have no idea. Guess the short-term bond should be fine.

  3. Hey Cobra. Any read on Chinese investor sentiment ? Is it getting wildly bullish yet ? Do you think that market will top soon ? Thanks.

    PS - How bout that great CPC chart ? do you consider it breakout ?

  4. There is a FOCM next week, and i can almost bet they "re-assure" that rates will stay at ZERO for a while. That will be a market bullish reaction, most likely.

    Just another puff of air to keep the balloon afloat while the magnet to the downside get's stronger and stronger.

  5. The bullish sentiment reached to an extreme last weekend. I think I mentioned that in the weekend report where I was bashed and laughed by "stock gods" as a bookworm.

    CPC chart? You mean CPCE chart? I mentioned it in the yesterday's report and today I still consider it as a valid breakout.

  6. Erik, we all know rate will stay at ZERO.

  7. I mean, ZERO should already be priced in.

  8. Cobra, yea I know it, and It's probably baked in mostly. But I still think the actual event gives a pop. Historically, regardless of the rate level....FOMC is bullish



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