Live Update

Monday, October 12, 2009

10/12/2009 Market Recap: SPY QQQQ non-confirmation


Still could be very close to a short-term top.

  TREND MOMENTUM   COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up      
Intermediate Down Neutral    
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model I   Watch Breakout Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now.
ST Model II   Stopped out short flat on 10/08.  No position held now.
VIX ENV 10/06 L *Adjust stop loss 10/09 Low  
Reversal Bar 10/05 L *Adjust stop loss 10/08 Low  
Up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row 10/12 S *Short at close  Hold 3 days  61% winning rate since 2002.


Nothing new. Still no clue about the intermediate-term direction. The bottom line:

1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, record high overbought breadth plus non-confirmation between INDU and TRAN, so I still believe in that there’ll be at least 10% correction.


Short-term, I still think after consolidation (as we’ve had for the past few days) the market will pullback.

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), SPY new high not confirmed by QQQQ, this kind of non-confirmation is bearish.


1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, black bar again, so 2 predictions: 1. Gap down open tomorrow. 2. Not far away from a short-term top.


Of course, today is a  holiday, so whatever we saw may mean nothing. Let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow.


I’ve posted a brief introduction about all the mechanical trading signals listed in the trend table, take a look if interested: Introducing Mechanical Trading Model

About the “SPY up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row” short-term short setup, the details are here: 10/12/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

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