Live Update

Thursday, October 15, 2009

10/15/2009 Market Recap: VIX Outside Bar at New Low


VIX may drop further.

Could be a short-term pullback soon.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Up Neutral No argue  
Short-term Up Neutral Yes!  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model I 10/14 L 10/06 Low
ST Model II   Stopped out short flat on 10/08. 
No position held now.
VIX ENV 10/06 L *Adjust stop loss *10/14 Low  
Reversal Bar 10/05 L 10/13 Low  



2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), outside bar usually means a continuation, so VIX may drop further and therefore the stock market may rise further. Just be careful, VIX is a double edged sword, if dropped too much the market may be topped.


Not much new to say, maintained the target market in chart 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly).


Tomorrow is the OE day, so no idea what will happen. Just I see some signs of a short-term top, so if the market rise further tomorrow, better take some profit.

8.1.5 Normalized CPCE, this is the main reason I expect a short-term pullback, a little bit too low, although comparing with the past extremes there’s still some room on the downside.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), lots of negative divergences, so the pullback could happen as early as tomorrow.


3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), the black bar has a higher chance to lead a reversal, so US$ could rebound further which may mean a pullback of the stock market.


1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, the “very close to a short-term top” prophecy carried by the black bar is not over yet and another reversal like hollow red bar was formed today, so still QQQQ could pullback further.



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