Live Update

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

10/20/2009 Market Recap: QQQQ Black Bar Again


Could be very close to a short-term top.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Up Neutral No argue NYSI not confirming the up trend.
Short-term Up Neutral Yes!  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 10/14 L 10/06 Low
Reversal Bar 10/05 L 10/16 Low  
VIX ENV 10/06 L *Adjust stop loss *10/19 Low


NYMO Sell   Must be a red day next day to confirm the sell signal  

Winning Rate: 59%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 4.9

Very risky trade but occasionally may catch the exact market top.



Maintain target mentioned in chart 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly). Just pay attention that now SPX is very close to the trend line resistance as well as the Fib 50 target at 1121.


The market opened high but closed in red so today is a reversal day. The chart below marks all the reversal days since the March. Looks to me, chances are higher that SPX will consolidate or pullback thereafter.


1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, I hope you still remember the 2 prophecies carried with a QQQQ black bar: 1. Gap down open tomorrow but might not close in red; 2. Not far away from a short-term top.


6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, the MYMO Sell setup will be triggered if we have a red day tomorrow. I’ve mentioned this setup in the weekend report. It’s risky but occasionally the reward is catching exactly the market top.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), if indeed there’s a pullback, according to the measured move, there’ll be around $1.45 drop which may enough to fill the SPY’s 13th gap. According the market’s behaviors in the past 2 days, looks like the SPY couldn’t hold its 14th gap, so actually a pullback to fill the 13th gap is healthy for bulls.



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