Live Update

Monday, October 19, 2009

10/19/2009 Market Recap: No Title


Pay attention to resistances not far away.

Pay attention to negative divergences.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Up Neutral No argue NYSI not confirming the up trend.
Short-term Up Neutral Yes!  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 10/14 L 10/06 Low
Reversal Bar 10/05 L *Adjust stop loss *10/16 Low  
VIX ENV 10/06 L 10/16 Low


NYMO Sell   Must be a red day next day to confirm the sell signal  

Winning Rate: 59%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 4.9

Very risky trade but occasionally may catch the exact market top.


*Sell signal not confirmed today.



Maintain the target marked in chart 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly), just now SPX is not far away from the trend line and the Fib 50 target at 1121.


1.1.2 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Weekly), because of AAPL ER, QQQQ traded around $43.55 in AH which happens to be in the previous resistance area. Whether the QQQQ could overcome the overhead resistance is remained to be seen tomorrow.


The bears hope is chart 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator, despite the straight up market, NYMO is sill not far away from the zero line with clear negative divergence. It implies a weakening up momentum. Just this is not the reason to short, at least not before seeing a reversal day as a bar like today with not much up and low shadow seldom is a top.



Not much to say. A few negative signs I see, doesn’t mean a pullback tomorrow but an up day tomorrow is not a sure thing either.

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), lots of negative divergences. Unless SPY up really big tomorrow otherwise these negative divergences will eventually result in a pullback.


1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), a cycle is due today, so it’s sill possible the market may turn down tomorrow.


3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), lots of positive divergences, so US$ could rebound any time, this may mean a pullback in the stock market.



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