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SHORT-TERM: THERE’S A CHANCE THE MARKET MAY PULLBACK FROM HERE, NOT SURE THOUGH
Two reversal like bars formed on the SPY daily chart, so if this was the pre-YES-WE-CAN-age then chances were very good we’d see pullback at least for the short-term. Now because of POMO and YES WE CAN, multiple reversal bars setup didn’t work well, so the only thing I can say here is: Let’s wait and see. Basically, still as mentioned in 12/03 Market Recap, if bear wants a revenge, it’s now or never.
I hope you still remember the “Double Doom” I mentioned in 12/03 Market Recap. Well, what I worried at that time happened today: SPX higher high while INDU not. Again whether it means what it’s used to mean, we’ll have to wait and see.
By the way, if you feel what I blah blah everyday is way too complicated, either you can simply follow the SPY ST Model (Now is in buy mode but with no long position initiated yet), or reference what position I hold overnight in the short-term session of the table above – whenever I hold both long and short overnight then chances are good that the trend is in transition mode, so it’s probably a good idea to reduce the current position; Whenever I hold long or short overnight then trend must be very clear, in most cases you can just follow me to long or short as I really don’t think always bet against a 84%+ winning rate model is a good idea. Now, for example, even I’ve been blah blah about “bear’s revenge now or never”, but clearly I’m not short, right? No matter what evidences say, if price action doesn’t confirm, charge against the current trend is very risky, I want to make this very clear.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227
Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH
See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/02 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | *Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ChiOsc is way too high. | |
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | *Bearish Engulfing rejected at the previous high. Be careful. | |
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/02 L | *Bearish Engulfing. |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | *Bearish Engulfing, all the recent pullbacks started with Bearish Engulfing, be careful. | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | *Bearish Engulfing. |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | ChiOsc is way too high. |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
