| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
SHORT-TERM: THE TOP COULD BE IN, TARGET SPX 1227
Maintain the call for short-term top, target SPX 1227, see 12/14 Market Recap for more details.
Although the market closed in red today but there’s no improvement on Sentimentrader’s Indicators At Extremes chart, so even the market starts to rise again tomorrow, the upside could be very limited, so still recommend a caution here.
The biggest problem today is CPC is extremely low therefore now CPC MA(10) has reached an extreme level which according to the chart below, at least not so bull friendly for the short-term.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HINDENBURG OMEN CONFIRMED
The Hindenburg Omen I mentioned in yesterday’s report, is triggered again today, confirming indeed this is Hindenburg Omen. Basically, for the intermediate-term, I’ll temporarily maintain the forecast for calling the 5th wave up to SPX 1300 (see 12/10 Market Recap for more details). The forecast doesn’t conflict with the Hindenburg Omen, in case you want to know, because it’s very common for a 5th wave up to be truncated, well, if indeed this is the 5th wave up.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK
See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/14 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | *ChiOsc is a little low. | |
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/02 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
