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SHORT-TERM: CPCE TOP SIGNAL HAVE NOT TRIGGERED
Nothing to say today, I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary (doesn’t work anyway). It’s a typical holiday market, small rise with decreased volume each day. My guess is we’ll see similar pattern tomorrow.
Two points for your attention:
Thanks for some readers’ reminder, there’s a perfect 3 points validated trend line on CPCE chart, so accordingly the top signal hasn’t been triggered yet.
VIX:VXV ratio hit a record low today which to me means not much upside room ahead. Normally when the market rises, you want to see VIX rises as well, because it means people are cautious and therefore bought lots of put to protect their longs, so a pullback, if any, won’t drop much. Now the market rises while VIX keeps dropping which means not many people are buying put to hedge, this is a dangerous situation because once the pullback starts, there’s not much buffer below so the pullback will be sharp and violent.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/21 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/17 S | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
