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SHORT-TERM: WAIT TOMORROW TO SEE IN WHICH DIRECTION THE MARKET BREAKS
The breakout today is not enough, still can be seen as a retest of the previous high, so bears still have hopes. Let’s see tomorrow.
Overall, price volume pattern is very bearish, so I still think a sizeable pullback is just a matter of time and once the pullback starts, it’d wipe out a couple of weeks gains within a couple of days.
The CPCE top signal I mentioned in yesterday report is confirmed today. Those who have been reading my blog should know this is a fairly reliable signal. Well, let’s see if it works or not this time.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: LAST WEEK AND THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY BEARISH
See 12/23 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/21 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | *Clear breakdown below consolidation range, be careful. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | *Another leg down? | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | The 2nd test of the previous low, so there’s a chance EURO is bottomed around here. | |
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/17 S | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
