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SHORT-TERM: POTENTIAL NYMO SELL SETUP AND TOO MANY SENTIMENTRADER’S INDICATORS ARE AT BEARISH EXTREMES
I know, for most of you the very first reflection to today’s title is, who cares or very very (insert 100 very here) hard to believe, even some may murmur (of course low enough to make sure I couldn’t hear), come on, give me a break, LOL. Anyway, I have to report what I see. I believe all those accumulated signs in the table above eventually would work, the question is when, which I have no answer, well, as always. Personally, I’m in wait and see mode as you can see for short-term I hold no position overnight.
NYMO Sell Setup,
Derived from 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, whenever SPX new high or very close to a new high with negative NYMO, more often than not, it meant a top of some kind. Granted, like all the other indicators, it didn’t always work, especially the mechanical NYMO Sell setup, now it has only 63% winning rate since year 2002. Also pay attention to “potential setup” here, because in table above there’s one more confirmation needed tomorrow.
Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes,
See chart below, 41% of total Sentimentrader’s indicators are now at bearish extremes. The reading is very close to the extremes recorded around November top.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227
Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH
See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/02 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/02 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
