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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

10/01/2008 Market Recap: Breadth still oversold

From the perspective of the technical analysis, the market is bullish over the near term and the intermediate term.

Here is why the mid-term outlook is bullish: 0.0.3 SPY Mid-term Trading Signals, VIX:VXV is above 1.1, which means the mid-term (90 days) volatility is lower than the current level and thus the probability of mid-term rally is relatively high.


Here is why the short-term outlook is bullish too: 2.4.3 Breadth Oversold/Overbought Watch, RHNYA and NYA50R are still oversold, which means the probability of short-term bounce is very high.


3.0.2 Credit Risk Watch.  StockCharts does not provide 3-month LIBOR so I use 1-month LIBOR instead.  You don't need to comprehend the meaning of LIBOR.  On the following chart, every time when the black curve is at a very high level the stock market denoted by the green curve will drop down.  Now the black curve starts to drop down, which means the credit crisis is getting somewhat relieved.


Tomorrow, the probability of rising is high.

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.2.4 Diamonds (DIA 15 min), Ascending Triangle, relatively high probability of breakout at the upside.


1.1.7 TRINQ Trading Setup, TRINQ is above 2.0 today, which means QQQQ will probably rise tomorrow.  So far the success rate of this setup is 83%.


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