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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

10/08/2008 Market Recap: Almost a reversal day

Today is a bit discouraging because a reversal day was almost there but eventually faded in the selling off.  Under this situation, one should keep calm and be patient.  However I would like to remind you again that the capital preservation is important.  Today is unlikely a bottom according to 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily) because the market rarely reaches bottom while VIX is still a big white candle.


What about tomorrow?  Now I feel hesitate to say the market is due for a rebound because of being oversold.  But there is no straight down market, and I believe a reversal could happen at any time.  In most cases the bottom is formed as an intraday reversal, but not always.  It is also possible that the reversal day is formed on today and tomorrow.  On July 14th there was also a selling off after an intraday reversal, and the market soared up on the next day.  Therefore, the history might repeat.

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min).  Today's selling off can also be considered as the kiss back after the breakout of bullish falling wedge, which supports the possibility of tomorrow's rally.


3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily).  Japanese Yen is overbought, and the candle looks like a reversal.  The retreat of Japanese Yen helps carry trade and is in turn bullish to the stock market.  Although it is said that the influence of carry trade is almost gone, my observation shows that the trend of Yen is nearly an inverse of the stock market.  You may refer to the relationship between the intraday trend of Yen and SPY on 2.1.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 5 min).


3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Top/Bottom.  When Yen enters into the overbought region, the green curve denotes the stock market is very likely bottomed, isn't it?  Today Yen is finally there, which is a good sign.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1540 stocks price down volume up.  Among recent six days, four days the dominant price-volume relationship is price down volume up, which indicates the market is extremely oversold.


2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing.  This is the most encouraging signal today.  NYADV is still higher low.  As long as no lower low shows up, we have a piece of hope.



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