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Sunday, October 26, 2008

10/24/2008 Market Recap: Descending Triangle

Usually a bottom is not in place before VIX forms a reversal candle (e.g., black candle, Doji, etc), from this perspective the Friday low may not be a bottom.  What about next Monday?  There is a pattern recently, once it repeats the market should rise.  Will be the third time different?  I don't know.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  Friday hollow red candle appears, then the next Monday opens high closes higher.  In the past the third time is often different.  So it is unknown how it goes this time.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), the odd isn't at bulls' side, major indices all look like descending triangle (QQQQ has broken out), and the theoretical target is scary.  However I am inclined to (or wish) believe the theoretical target is 2002 low.  1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly), on the monthly chart, it would just take 1-2 days anyway given such a dramatic speed of falling down.



3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Top/Bottom.  Every time the RSI of YEN reaches overbought region, the market is close to a bottom or has a big rally.  Now it is overbought again, and this is obviously a good news.


3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly).  The crude oil seems being testing the long term support. Period.


3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min).  Oil dropped down on last Friday but MACD and RSI still show positive divergence.



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