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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

10/28/2008 Market Recap: Follow-through Wanted

Today is a major accumulation day (1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days).  As I mentioned in the past, I am not sure if Sep 30th can be considered as a major accumulation day, thus I tend to consider today is a follow-through Major Accumulation Aay since the Oct 13th Major Accumulation Day.  Therefore according the history record, the market could rise for 22% on average within 60 days from today's close.  For more information, one can refer to Sep 30th's market recap.  Once again, I have to emphasis that no signal is 100% accurate, on 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights all mid-term signals are still sell.  So you have to do your own due diligence to see if two major accumulation days are sufficient for mid-term buy.


Tomorrow is critical.  I have mentioned that the market has never up for two days in a row in October.  If tomorrow we could see a follow-through, it would be a milestone.  Of course, even the market rallies tomorrow we still need a higher high to confirm the trend reversal.  0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, read the comments on the chart and you will know what I am talking about.


Will the market rally tomorrow?  On the chart it seems the market could pull back at least in the morning.  Whether or not the market could close in green, we have to see how the market reacts to the rate cut by the Fed.  Very likely at 2:15pm when Fed declares the rate cut, the market may swing violently.

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  This is why the market is due for a pullback in the morning, because the RSI is deeply overbought.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min).  Note the RSI is on resistance.  There are plenty of information on the chart, the bad news is heavy resistance is at above, just look at three gap resistance.  The good news is descending triangle seems having broken out on the upside.  Furthermore, MACD and RSI show obvious positive divergence which usually means that SPY should have a decent upside room.


3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily).  Island reversal is formed on the chart of Japanese Yen today, which is a good news to the stock market.


3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Top/Bottom.  Once again I would like to show that it is effective to judge the market top/bottom based on oversold RSI of Yen.  By the way, recently many signals stop working except for three signals, and this chart is one of them.  2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing which uses 5-day moving average to judge the oversold is another one (fore more details please read yesterday's market recap).  The last one is 1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days which says the market should rally significantly after two to three major distribution days, so far it works.


1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min).  The chart of Canadian market looks like a bullish falling wedge, and MACD and RSI show positive divergence, so it may bounce back up.


3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).  The gold is an ascending triangle, and the upside breakout is more likely.


3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min).  MACD and RSI show positive divergence.



  1. Not so sure there is an Island reversal in Japanese Yen; WISH it was so because it would be a nice clear signal and it would have broader implications.

    There was no island formation in
    December Yen futures contract. The Yen cash charts are littered with gaps almost to the point of being meaningless (as is the FXY chart). The Dec Yen futures chart is not littered with gaps. For gaps to have some significance think they shouldn't occur so commonly.

    Regarding FXY chart, there are no NON-confirmations (RSI, Slow Stochastics, MACD) accompanying the "island" which one would reasonably expect to find.

  2. Hi, Dave,

    Thanks. I think you're absolutely right! I'll correct this in today's summary.

    Thanks again.

  3. Thanks for taking it in the constructive spirit it was meant to be. As i wrote in the first paragraph "...WISH it was so because it would be a nice clear signal and it would have broader implications."

    For comparison, look at the CHK beautiful island top at the beginning of July and the NON-confirmations (RSI, Slow STX, MACD)


  4. Btw, this is not to say that FXY won't pull back. However, there is a big difference in a pullback & the implications of an island top.




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