I got a feedback about the using of $LIBOR:$UST1M to check the current credit risk, which appears that I was totally wrong. Since the feedback is in the comment area of this blog, I assume that most of you might not notice it so as granted by the original author, I put the commentary here, further feedbacks are welcome.
Your idea of LIBOR and UST3M Spread (also known as TED Spread) is conceptually correct. However, you may not be aware that the $LIBOR in StockCharts is NOT the LIBOR yield itself! It has the opposite correlation with the rate, just like the relationship between IEF and $TNX. So your $LIBOR:$UST1M ratio is misleading. Stockcharts has almost no chart to represent 3 months Treasury Bill. So I use BIL (an ETF) as a replacement. The ratio should be BIL:$LIBOR. Note that the ratio has been inversed in order to offset the bond price/yield relationship!
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Tuesday, October 7, 2008
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Bloomberg has a pretty good chart of the TED spread here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND
Bloomberg's TED spread is one day behind.
ReplyDelete