Live Update

Monday, June 8, 2009

06/08/2009 Market Recap: No Title

Summary:

Short-term bulls have a little edges.

Some "no good" signs may eventually have negative impact on the intermediate-term.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  

No conclusion today, let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow. Short-term bulls have a little edge, not very sure though. Intermediate-term, lots of “no good” signs, just I have no idea when those signs will have negative impact on the stock market.

Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, oversold, so the market may keep rebounding tomorrow.

STEM.MR

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), a black bar is formed, which may mean a pullback, and currently the pullback of the US$ is good for the stock market.

UUPDaily 

Some “no good” signs for your info:

1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily), unlike SPX, institutional core holdings index hasn’t reached a higher high yet, this is a negative divergence, which may mean that the recent SPX higher high was not made by institutional accumulation. From the Institution Buying and Selling Trending (Courtesy of www.stocktiming.com), also we can see that institutions weren’t the major part of the recent rally.

XIIDaily instbsell

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), SOX still lags. Statistics show that it’s good for the broad index whenever SOX leads, while no good for the broad index whenever SOX lags. From the chart, we can see when the market formed a bottom in Mar, SOX and COMPQ had a positive divergence, while now, they have a negative divergence.

COMPQDaily

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, rose again which means more (perhaps extremely) pursuing riskier asset, this usually is not good.

NATVvsNYTV

3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, yield cannot rise forever as the rising borrowing cost does no good for the economic recovery and this also means that the stock market cannot rise forever. Just right now I’m not sure where the limit is.

TNXDaily

9 comments:

  1. Truly great stuff.

    I think we could see a H&S on IWM 60M. Just something to keep an eye on.

    Rik

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cobra - Our bank list gets shorter!
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/tarp-repayment-announcement-on-tuesday.html

    CPC cracked down trend line today.

    Nice work as always,

    Shanky

    ReplyDelete
  3. Cobra, I think your work is great. I have a question about the intermediate term. I remember back in March seeing a lot of strength in the Hang Seng before the U.S. began to rally. Now I'm thinking the Hang Seng is showing some weakness since it's down about 5% from it's highest point since the rally began (18,961 - intraday high on June 3rd). Any insight on this is appreciated. Thanks Again for Everything!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Cobra never sleeps.

    OK, maybe just a little, but it seems like never.

    ReplyDelete
  5. You might enjoy this, in thanks for all your work:

    http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/beware-of-the-recession-ending

    ReplyDelete
  6. There appears to be divergence on the daily S&P that would indicate a little deeper correction to what we have seen so far in this uptrend.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=20&id=p91984141199&a=170375398

    ReplyDelete
  7. I heard that China will lead the market. We'll see.

    And Schweizer, nice post, Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Divergence, yes, I saw a lot, just it's difficult to know when it's going to work.

    ReplyDelete

Disclaimer

The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.