01/12/2010 Market Recap: Orderly Retreat

SIGNAL MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low # of bears. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. Short-term *Down Neutral 1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps.  0.0.3 SPX: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low.  0.0.9 Put Call Ratio: Too extreme, top could be very close.

CONCLUSION Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. Shorted on 01/11. Close position at your own will.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low For chart, please see 0.0.4 SPY Mechanical Trading Model Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Breakout but STO is too high may pullback soon. 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily): Bearish reversal bar doesn’t look good.  EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): *Two green bar means more upside ahead. 1.4.2 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM 30 min): *Double Top, target 41.77. FINANCIALS 3.5.1 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF 30 min): *Double Top, target 14.80. REITS 3.6.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR 30 min): *Double Top, target 44.66. OIL & ENERGY GOLD DOLLAR BOND 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): STO too low. 3.0.1 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily): Hammer plus channel support. Bond could rebound, but overall it’s in a downtrend.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

No update, watch 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for overhead target/resistance and 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm for overbought breadth signals.

SHORT-TERM: MAY REBOUND BUT COULD BE MORE PULLBACKS AFTERWARDS

Take a look at today’s After Bell Quick Summary first please: I have no idea if the pullback is over or not, but for sure sooner or later, there’ll be a -1,000 TICK readings, this means at least there’ll be a moment of panic sellings ahead.

If you paid attention to the trend table comment area, you might have noticed that lots of short-term bearish signs were fixed, but still the put call ratio is at very extreme level so even if the market rebound to a new high, it eventually will pullback, therefore I think from now on it’s better to reduce long positions whenever the market rallies.

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch.

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals.

www.sentimentrader.com % of Indicators at bearish extremes are still high, maybe not very extreme but if there’s a huge rebound tomorrow then most likely tomorrow night I’ll again bring out this chart to scare (in vain) the fearless bulls. LOL

 

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