01/13/2010 Market Recap: NATV/NYTV a Little Too High

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT – click HERE for details Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is BUY Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH The FED’s money printing machine? :-) BEARISH 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Market Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low # of bears. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps.  0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Too extreme, top could be very close. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Topped? CONCLUSION Signals presented above are enough to justify a short selling. Shorted on 01/11. Close position at your own will.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low   Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell

ETF WATCH COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Breakout but STO is too high may pullback soon. 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: *Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.2 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM 30 min): Double Top, target 41.77. FINANCIALS 3.5.1 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF 30 min): *Double Bottom, target 15.35. REITS OIL & ENERGY   GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Hollow red bar plus MA50 support, could rebound. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

No update, watch 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for overhead target/resistance and 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm for overbought breadth signals.

SHORT-TERM: ONE MORE TOP SIGNAL AND SEASONALITY IS BEARISH FOR QQQQ UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY

Still the same problem, CPC and CPCE are extremely low and www.sentimentrader.com has too many indicators at bearish extremes. In addition, there’s another potential top signal triggered: 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume. So still suggest reducing long positions.

 

Seasonality, according to www.sentimentrader.com, since 2002, QQQQ performance was bad starting from the 8th trading day of each year (i.e. Today)until the end of January. I’ve prepared all the charts for you to verify, just they’re too many, so please click the link below to see for yourself.

8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009    
8.2.9b QQQQ – 2008
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2007
8.2.9d QQQQ – 2006
8.2.9e QQQQ – 2005
8.2.9f QQQQ – 2004
8.2.9g QQQQ – 2003
8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002  

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