01/25/2010 Market Recap: Bullish Harami?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in buy mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV): Potential buy signal to be triggered. BEARISH 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU breakdown below strong support area, suspect SPX might follow. 01/22 Market Recap: Climax Buying spiked again. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *Long if up day tomorrow. No confidence in this trade. Reversal Bar     *Long if up day tomorrow. No confidence in this trade. NYMO Sell 01/21 S Breakeven Sorry, forgot to mention this setup on 01/20. VIX MA ENV     *Long if VIX falls into it’s MA Envelope and SPY close > open.

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING CANADA TSX 1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): Double Top, target $15.77. FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS   OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): Very oversold, could rebound soon. GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): On multiple support, could rebound soon. DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Could be H&S Bottom in the forming. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION TARGET FOR INDU COULD BE AROUND 9727

No update. According to chart 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, the correction target could be around 9727.

SHORT-TERM: BULLISH HARAMI FORMED NEED AN UP DAY TOMORROW TO CONFIRM BOTTOM

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, a Bullish Harami could be formed, so if up tomorrow then a short-term bottom is confirmed. See SPY setup in the table above, if up tomorrow then 2 buy setups will be triggered. The chart below shows the back test result for the Reversal Bar setup, the winning rate is not bad. However, I’m more willing to believe the statistics mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the rest of the week will be weak, so even the market does rise, the upside maybe limited therefore be careful buying this dip.

Another good news for bulls, at least the market was bottomed the last there times when VIX bar body was completely out of BB. Let’s see what about this time.

 

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