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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

01/05/2010 Market Recap: Financials Look Good

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENTClick links to see chart or visit my public chart list.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral

3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month?
8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped?
12/31 Recap:
Climax Buying spiked, could be Topped.
12/31 Recap:
II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears.

Short-term Up Neutral

1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps.
01/04 Recap:
Too many bearish extremes.
0.0.3 SPX: CPC MA10 is too high.

0.0.6 Nasdaq 100, 0.0.1 Top/Bottom Watch: NADNV/NYDNV is too low.
1.1.0 Nasdaq: NDXA50R is too high.   

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling.
Waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE
Take profit whenever you see appropriate.
ST Model 12/21 L


Reversal Bar  


NYMO Sell  


VIX ENV        
WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details.
RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances, price could drop.
EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Breakout, not very convincing though.
FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): *Confirmed breakout of a Roof formation.
REITS 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): *On multiple support, could rebound. 
OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): Could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. 
GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): *Could be a back test of the broken trend line therefore likely to fall.
DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Double hollow red bar, could rebound.


Nothing new, in uptrend, upside target for SPX could be 1150ish.


Nothing new, there’s not much improvement on short-term bearish signs plus as mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, statistically a negative seasonality starting from tomorrow. For details click the links in trend table, short-term comment area above.

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), 2 hollow red bars in a row so very likely the dollar will rebound tomorrow which is not very friendly for the stock market.


The good news is Financials and REITS look good:

4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly), breakout, looks very good, hope this kind of bullish bar could hold onto Friday.


3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily), On multiple support, very likely to rebound.



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