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Thursday, January 7, 2010

01/07/2010 Market Recap: QQQQ Black Bar?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENTClick links to see chart or visit my public chart list.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral

3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month?
8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped?
12/31 Recap:
Climax Buying spiked, could be Topped.
12/31 Recap:
II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears.

Short-term Up Neutral

1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps.
01/04 Recap:
Too many bearish extremes.
0.0.3 SPX: CPC MA10 is too low.

0.0.1 Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV is too low. 
0.0.5 QQQQ: *Black bar, so more pullback? (not sure) 

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling.
Waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE
Take profit whenever you see appropriate.
ST Model 12/21 L

 *Adjust Stop Loss

*12/31 Low
Reversal Bar  


NYMO Sell  


VIX ENV        
WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details.
RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances.
EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Breakout, not very convincing though.
1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): *Big red bar means more downside ahead.
FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Confirmed breakout of a Roof formation.
REITS 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): On multiple support, could rebound. 
3.6.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR 30 min): *Bullish 1-2-3 formation breakout, target 47.09.
OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): Could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. 
DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Double hollow red bar, could rebound.


Nothing new, the SPX now right under it’s long term trend line resistance.



No improvement on huge pile up of short-term bearish signs (see tables above), in addition 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals formed a black bar, which means, 1. Gap down open tomorrow (may not close in red); 2. Not far away from a short-term top. However, this time I’m not sure if the black bar is the usual black bar I talked before.


Statistics about tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls Reports (Courtesy of listed below, generally should be a bullish day tomorrow. However if gap up open tomorrow morning, according to 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), it’ll be the SPY’s 16th unfilled gap plus statistically, the open gap on Non Farm Payrolls Day usually gets faded, so if we see gap up open tomorrow morning, better not chase high.

NFPSinceMarch2009 NFPIntraday

1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily), big red bar usually means more downside ahead for China market, not sure if it works this time again or not.



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