01/14/2010 Market Recap: NATV/NYTV Rose Even Higher

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in buy mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly):  H&S Bottom text book target is 1246. BEARISH 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps.  0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC and CPCE MA5 are too low. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Topped? 01/14 Market Recap: *II and AAII survey show extremely high bull to bear ratio. CONCLUSION Signals presented above are enough to justify a short selling. For aggressive traders only. Shorted on 01/11. Close position at your own will.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low   Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell

ETF WATCH COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Breakout but STO is too high may pullback soon. 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.2 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM 30 min): Double Top, target 41.77. FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): *Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. REITS OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): *Symmetrical Triangle, the price could drop more. GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Hollow red bar plus MA50 support, could rebound. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

No update, watch 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for overhead target/resistance and 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm for overbought breadth signals.

SHORT-TERM: NATV TO NYTV RATIO ROSE EVEN HIGHER

The same old problem, CPC and CPCE are extremely low (see table above) and www.sentimentrader.com has too many indicators at bearish extremes. So still think it’s better to reduce long position.

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, moved even higher which means people are crazy about high beta stocks. This usually is a sign of extreme bullishness therefore could mean a top. Also Rydex traders seem to extremely like Nasdaq too. Anyway, I’m not calling a top, I just mean better be safe then sorry.

The most recent II and AAII Bull Ratio, also at extreme level.

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

Take a look if interested, I don’t know if 251 / 346 = 73% outflow was block sell today means IWM bearish tomorrow or not?

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases), if you believe look at the moon is not superstitious then click the link see for yourself.