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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

01/06/2010 Market Recap: SPX Target According To Measured Move

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENTClick links to see chart or visit my public chart list.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral

3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month?
8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped?
12/31 Recap:
Climax Buying spiked, could be Topped.
12/31 Recap:
II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears.

Short-term Up Neutral

1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps.
01/04 Recap:
Too many bearish extremes.
0.0.3 SPX: CPC MA10 is too low.

0.0.6 Nasdaq 100, 0.0.1 Top/Bottom Watch: NADNV/NYDNV is too low.
1.1.0 Nasdaq: NDXA50R is too high.   

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling.
Waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE
Take profit whenever you see appropriate.
ST Model 12/21 L


Reversal Bar  


NYMO Sell  


VIX ENV        
WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details.
RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances.
EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Breakout, not very convincing though.
FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Confirmed breakout of a Roof formation.
REITS 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): On multiple support, could rebound. 
OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): Could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. 
DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Double hollow red bar, could rebound.


The chart below shows all the possible target according to the measured move pattern. SPX reached the most common target at Fib 61.8% today (Due to the limit of the Fib tool, in order to display the correct target price, I can only put the Fib tool upside down, anyway, treat Fib 38.2% as Fib 61.8%), so it’s possible that it could pullback tomorrow. The next target 1150 above is also very possible, see chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index Weekly), there’re multiple resistances around there. Also according to Elliot Wave theory, if you still believe A = C, then the target is 1159 (see chart 4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)) which also points to 1150 area. Coincidence? We’ll see.

SPXMeasuredMove  SPXWeekly


1.3.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 30 min), could be a Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.


4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly), the weekly chart clearly shows that IWM has multiple resistances above so again, IWM could pullback from here.


Nothing else new, no improvement on huge pile of short-term bearish signs, see trend table above. As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the market could pullback tomorrow, I’m not very sure though, but the the bottom line, I think a short-term pullback soon is very likely.



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