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Monday, August 9, 2010

08/09/2010 Market Recap: NYSE Total Volume Too Low

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode
Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up, but I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
8/11,8/26 08/09 / 08/08 8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/06 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26
BULLISH
BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low.
0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: A little bit low.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.
ST Model 07/20 L 07/30 low
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

Maintain the following forecast:

  1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over and the rebound since 07/01 is near end. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
  2. Potential rebound price target is SPX 1131 and time target is around 08/10. See 08/06 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: NYSE TOTAL VOLUME IS WAY TOO LOW, NOT A GOOD SIGN

Not much too say today, all eyes are on whether the Fed will announce the Quantitative Easing II tomorrow. Personally, I don’t think the Fed will announce the Quantitative Easing II, but how the market reacts to this no announcement stuff is hard to predict. From the chart below we can see, generally the Fed day was bullish.

1

I’d like to show you 2 charts today, both are bear friendly. I still think a top of some kind should be very close. But I’m not sure the pullback if indeed is short-term or intermediate-term.

0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume, way too low. This is an very important top sign.

2

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), negative divergence too much too large, looks very bearish to me.

3


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
  TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP
IWM UP 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): 2 black bars in a row, doesn’t look good.
CHINA UP
EMERGING UP
EUROPEAN UP
CANADA UP
BOND UP
EURO UP
GOLD DOWN *Confirmed black bar reversal and the 3rd time is the charm, so more pullback?
GDX DOWN *2 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good.
OIL UP
ENERGY UP
FINANCIALS UP
REITS UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS UP
Posted by Cobra at 7:16 PM
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