The bottom line, the short-term trend is down, I did nothing today but still hold tiny short position over the weekend.
As I’ve been saying, for the intermediate-term position, I try my best not to trade against my SPY ST Model which is still in buy mode (although the enter long signal I mentioned in the last night report is not confirmed today but still valid if the market could close in green the next Monday). So officially to me, the intermediate-term trend is still up, but except the Hindenburg Omen I mentioned in the last night report, I saw another bad sign again today – the SPY weekly Bearish Engulfing. I’ll talk about this in details in the weekend report. If you cannot wait, you can check 06/25 Market Recap and 04/30 Market Recap. They should’ve provided enough information and I’m sure I won’t add anything new in the weekend report other than post those already posted charts again.
As for the next Monday, the information so far I've gathered seems bull friendly.
Seasonality wise, seems the Bullish Monday is back and also according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 14.
And statistically, SPY down 4 days in a row, buy at close today and hold until the first up day since year 2000, you have 82% chances, most likely you’ll win the next day, i.e. the next Monday.
Enjoy your weekend!
