08/31/2010 Market Recap: One Day Up One Day Down?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down, I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH *6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Hollow Red bar reversal? BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model *Sell short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 1.9 * ATR(10). *Treat this model as a joke because someone with bogus email address told me that I should throw this model away.  So again and again and again, for fun only.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BULLISH LATER

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH, THE NEXT PIVOT DATE IS AROUND 09/07 TO 09/10

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: QQQQ HOLLOW RED BAR GIVES BULL HOPES BUT SPX SHOULD BREAK ITS RECENT ONE DAY UP ONE DAY DOWN PATTERN FIRST

With the help of the bullish seasonality on the first trading day of each month (See 08/27 Market Recap), I hope SPX could finally break the recent one day up one day down pattern. No matter how bullish you think the market is going to be, at least for the very first step, the SPX must be able to rise 2 days in a row, agree? So let’s see tomorrow. Overall, the daily chart doesn’t look good, especially the 1040 has been tested 3 times so the chances for it to hold the 4th test is remote. And once 1040 were broken, then according to the Measured Move, the 07/01 low would be the minimum target.

 

6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch, this is a good news for bulls. Whether is today a bottom of some kind, we’ll have to wait for a few days. Just remind you of this chart for now.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	BUY
BOND	UP	*BUY	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN	*SELL
GOLD	UP	*SELL
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): ChiOsc is too high.
OIL	DOWN	*SELL
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.