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SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH
See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED
- The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
- The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: REBOUND TARGET 1106 TO 1110, COULD LAST TO 08/23
In 08/11 Market Recap, I mentioned chart 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch, because NYDNV:NYUPV > 35 so there’d be a tradable bottom within 2 to 4 days. At that time, I said, the market could bottom around 08/17 then rebound to 08/23. From the market action today, looks to me that the tradable bottom was already in on 08/16. Now the question is: How far can the rebound go? From the original “tradable bottom” chart below, we can see there’re 8 times when NYDNV:NYUPV > 35 recently, among them, there’re 2 THE BOTTOM and all the rest 6 were partial retracements.
Since even it is THE BOTTOM, the market has to pass the Fib retracement area first, so to simplify the research, I just need focus on all those partial retracement cases to get, this time, the mini mini how far the rebound can go, agree?
The following charts are the zoom in of the recent partial retracements. Looks to me, all the partial retracement at least retraced to Fib 61.8%.
OK, now let’s from another angle see how far the rebound can go. From the chart below, the Fib 61.8% retracement at 1106 happens to be in the multiple Fib confluences area. This fits well for the above observation from the past history. Time wise, all the rebound since 04/26 had lasted at least 5 trading days, so add the 4 more trading days to today, it happens to be on 08/23. What a coincidence, as the 08/23 happens to be an very important pivot date I mentioned in 08/13 Market Recap!
So the conclusion, I think the rebound may have further to go, the initial price target could be around 1106 to 1110 area, the rebound could last to 08/23. But since all the signs I mentioned in 08/16 Market Recap: the 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals, the 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume and T2105 are still valid, therefore I still think that the rebound wouldn’t go too far.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| TREND | COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. | |
| QQQQ | UP | |
| IWM | UP | |
| CHINA | UP | |
| EMERGING | UP | 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high. |
| EUROPEAN | UP | |
| CANADA | UP | |
| BOND | UP | |
| EURO | UP | |
| GOLD | UP | |
| GDX | *UP | |
| OIL | UP | |
| ENERGY | UP | |
| FINANCIALS | UP | |
| REITS | UP | 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful. |
| MATERIALS | UP |
