Live Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

07/01/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

CPC = 0.8, so 79% chances a green close tomorrow. Just 0.8 isn’t a stable number as market by red arrows in the below chart, among the past 8 failed cases, there were 3 failures when CPC was exactly equal to 0.8.


Meanwhile the intraday model from is very close to an overbought level.


So, my best guess is that we’ll see a pullback at least in the morning. And since now SPY has 8 unfilled gaps and we’ve already had 3 days in a row the market opened with a gap up, so I really doubt if the market could have another gap up open tomorrow and even it does, if it could hold the 9th gap.

A reader asked if the “Firework” trading setup is still on? The answer is yes, the setup shall go on until the terminate conditions (as annotated on the chart) are met. Personally, I’m not following this setup this time and yes, I did regret every time whenever I didn’t follow the “Firework” setup…



  1. Do you think the failure of fireworks this time may be a sign of trend change?

  2. Cannot say the Firework failed yet unless we have a big gap down tomorrow.



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