Live Update

Thursday, July 2, 2009

07/02/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

After collecting all the data, I found that the market wasn’t as oversold as I thought. Well, yes, it’s possible we’ll see a Monday bounce at least in the morning. But, do you really want to buy this dip? SPY still has 7 unfilled gaps so if Monday gaps up then we all know that this 8th gap won’t hold therefore you get a sell opportunity anyway with much lower risks since you don’t need to hold your long through long weekend. And what if Monday gaps down? Well, if you really want to buy the dip, that gap down gives you even better entry, right? So my guess is no hurry actions in AH.

After looking at the following ISEE table, which shows that retailers are so bullish, you might have a 2nd thought about buying this dip too. Also remember discussion here about when All Indices and ETFs only readings are above 100?


Oh, Firework trading officially ended in the morning when the market gapped down. It’s the 3rd failed setup. But still we saw an intraday “firework” Wednesday, didn’t we? No excuse, there’s no perfect trading setup. Enjoy your long weekend.



  1. thank you Cobra! Have a nice long weekend!

  2. 6月11日的firework也fail了.---bayliner

  3. Thanks Cobra, and have a good holiday!

    By the way, do you know what Index& etf includes? (index&etf options such as oex, and or spy/qqqq/iwm options?)

    I am not sure why index&etf > 100 or 110 means something. I think MM doesn't play spy options, while most retail investors do.

  4. thanks, cobra. you are the best

  5. Bayliner, firework setup wasn't triggered on June 11 because that day the CPCE was way too low.

    All Indices & ETFs only: Should include oex/spy/qqqq etc etc.

  6. Thanks Cobra,
    please share your guess or thoughts.
    Will SPX retest the 666 lows or will a 50% retracement be as much as we can expect....

  7. And a happy restful holiday to you, Cobra. I enjoy reading your posts each day and appreciate your honesty and candor.

  8. You are so great!!!!!!!!

  9. If SPX 878 broken then H&S top is formed and then the target will be 878 - ( 956 - 878 ) = 800, which is almost 50% retracement from 666 to 878.

  10. Sorry, should be 50% retracement from 666 to 956.

  11. Thanks, Cobra! Have a great weekend!

  12. Will exit all QID & SDS @880. Thanks. Happylux

  13. Cobra

    I believe the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern might have a slight slant (and not be horizontal). 890 - 895 might be the figure to watch next Monday (and if broken could validate the H & S formation). In actual fact valid necklines are often angular.

    Last but not least: thanks for your great work!

  14. Uempel,..

    Thanks for posting your work. Do you see any likely Change in Trend (CIT) dates near term?,..based on Gann or Cycles that you follow?

    Just wondering what was on your radar for the upcoming mid July Bradley time frame,...whether you are looking for a High or a Low then,..etc.

    Any thoughts appreciated. Regards, Jim

  15. Hi Jim,

    Lot's of support between 875 and 895. More support at 845/850 and tons of support at 805/817. My indicators show a clearly recognizable halt of this short term downtrend at 805/817 on July 24th or July 27th. But this information is conflicting: it’s difficult to imagine a strong rebound at the end of July. Statistically a rebound from a low at the end of September or October would make more sense. We will have to wait and see.

    I hope this answers your question.

  16. Uempel,

    Thank you very much,..always interested in your work.

    Regards, Jim P.



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