Live Update

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

07/07/2009 Market Recap: Watch Support Below


Market not oversold yet, could be more downside ahead.

Could be a rebound at least tomorrow morning.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

First of all, thanks for all the wonderful comments, I really appreciate it. And since I’m still a sick man so please forgive me if I didn’t reply to all your wonderful comments…

Bears best achievements today were:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, Head and Shoulders Top confirmed with the text book target around $81.04.


1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, Double Top confirmed with the text book target around $32.7.


Personally, I’d watch the support in chart 1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily). Only when the support is broken then officially an intermediate-term down trend is confirmed.


The question is if the support will hold? 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, well, if you believe this chart then INDU has already hinted that sooner or later SPX will breakdown the support.


0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, take a look at the overall signals especially the short-term signals. Because my favorite NYADV and NYMO are still neutral, so the market is not oversold yet. This could also be proved by today’s Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationship readings, where it has 1443 stocks price down on decreased volume which also means that the market is not oversold  yet.


3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), looks like the Head and Shoulders Bottom is confirmed therefore the bond may rise and the stock market may fall.


So to summarize above, intermediate-term, I think very likely more downside ahead.

Very short-term, there could be a rebound at least tomorrow morning:

Short-term model from, oversold.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), oversold plus lots of positive divergences.


2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), the well known VIX ENV10 is overbought now.


3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min), RSI oversold plus lots of positive divergences.



  1. Thanks and take care.

    Wish you speedy recovery from your sickness.

  2. Get well many hits will it take for the support area to breakdown? much thanks Cobra.

  3. Go Cobra!

    It's your birthday, we're going to party like it's your birthday.

  4. love your analysis, Cobra! Keep up the good work!

  5. Hi Cobra, hope you are on the mend? Super call with the VIX.
    I plotted $USD:$VIX on a 2 year chart . There is a nice downward trend line connecting 19th May 2008, 27th August 2008 and 30th June 2009. Also I applied cycles of approx 100 days (14 weeks) and they fit with the major tops nicely. Also From the May 08 highs to the October 8 highs, I found the June 09 high to be a sweet 0.618 fib retracement.
    Currently this relationship is sitting bang on its 50 day m.a, and interestingly was formed around the right shoulder. Could be a precursor to further declines.

    Mr. Hoof

  6. Good call Cobra!

  7. Hello Cobra,

    Great site. Thank you for all you do. (I know I'm only just saying what everybody else is but it's the truth).

    Can i ask you about accum/distr days ?

    I notice you follow NYDNV:NYDPV which i can see is a very helpful market timing statistic.

    Do you not see the value of following accum/dist for the NASDAQ (i.e $NAADV:$NADEC)?

    The reason i ask about this is that someone on another blog made this comment:

    "Yesterday's session was ugly, but volume ran lower than the previous day on the NYSE, thus avoiding a distribution day. This cannot be said for the Nasdaq, which suffered its 2nd straight day of distribution."

  8. Hi, Celal, the reason I don't put NADNV:NAUPV is that there's no statistic studay about 90% down day on Nasdaq. Also I think focus on NYSE is enough otherwise I'll have too many charts to watch.

  9. Well Gang...

    If you haven't already heard the news, here it is... "FLASH" Goldman Sach Code Theft BOMBSHELL!

    There's your proof that Goldman Sucks has been manipulating this market rally! Billions were stolen from who? YOU and ME... that's WHO!

    Dan Black



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