Live Update

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

07/22/2009 Market Recap: CPCI too high


Could be a green close tomorrow but cumulative TICK tells different story.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Overbought  

More about today’s After Bell Quick Summary: 7.0.7 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch, because both SPX and VIX dropped today so 9 out of 12 times recently a green day next day. Also 2.8.3 CBOE Options Index Put/Call Ratio, see green dashed lines, looks like whenever CPCI > 1.6, the next day was likely an up day. So looks like good chances SPX will have a green close tomorrow.


Cumulative TICK from, I mentioned SPX and Cumulative TICK negative divergence may mean a big pullback. But from the chart we can see, before the pullback, there’s usually a spike - see red cycles on the chart below. Today we got this spike. Will this mean the pullback start from tomorrow? Well, it conflicts with the above mentioned “green close conclusion”, so I have no idea which one should be trusted. Let’s wait and see.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, the similarity looks interesting. Just have a look, don’t want to imply anything here.


Listed below a few bearish signals I’ve been mentioning recently. Just for your references.

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), lots of negative divergence.


0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, ChiOsc way too high.


T2103 - Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, overbought.



  1. Much Appreciated for the analysis as always Cobra.

    (ya should throw an INO ad up here (as in 1)...all the work ya do and share ya deserve an extra 1-300 a month....just fyi)

  2. Future up on QCOM and SNDK bad news.. Hurrahh.. We rally

  3. bears, be's coming soon. Just ignore these dojis and don't let the market makers get you down. You WILL make a killing here shortly.

  4. Looking to short around 98...hope it works out

  5. Cobra,

    This market will likely continue to work it's way higher as the move up is still under-believed.

    Mutual Fund managers have been increasing allocations to equities.

    Weekly sentiment surveys (AAII, and Inv Intell) are still subdued.

    And the one thing that impresses me most, that despite the recent move UP,...Rydex traders - as measured by the Nova/Ursa ratio - are more bearish now than they were at the March Lows!!

    (click on 6 month chart):

    or view image directly:

    This measure of sentiment defies logic,..yet it is real.

    So I can see where this market has room to go on the upside. Also,..we are just above the mid June high here,..and the 1000 level (round number magnet) is not that far away.

    Thanks for sharing your work. Have a good day.

    Regards, Jim P.

  6. I have somehow held out of shorts till now and will begin scaling in today with some liberal stops. Might start with 1/3 position. This could wind up being a all in scenario.

    Thanks for your great work Cobra.


  7. Hi, we should all keep a lookout on the VIX. Its forming a really BIG falling bull wedge. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out soon.

  8. Day after day, waiting for a chance to buy the dip and participate, but this market is relentless.

    Hate to chase, but is there any other choice? Unfortunately, I haven't been able to take advantage much of the run from 666 to 970--one of the best runs in history. This was the opportunity I was waiting for since going into all cash back in 2007, but mostly I've just lost money "fighting the trend" in these free markets.

    Best to all,

  9. ADD, sorry to hear that. Just be patient. I have no long position now, sometimes no position is a postion. And there're always plenty of opportunities in the stock market, it's impossible to take them all the time.

  10. ADD, this is how most retail investors miss the bull market...they keep waiting for the pullback that never comes. When it does come, it's a minor one so they wait for a bigger pullback that never comes.

  11. 23rd of July, midday: Dan Black, I hope you had stops

  12. Uempel,..

    Hello. Thanks for mention of Thurs 07-23. Today was my next 3 week cycle (likely pivot) date, being a 13 mkt day count from previous pivot on Mon 07-06.

    I am biased to view it as High,..pivot, meaning we are likely to see a turn lower from here. How do you see this 07-23 (midday timeframe) a High? Thanks in advance.

    Regards, Jim P.

    PS I posted these upcoming 3 week cycle dates (likely pivots) yesterday. Don't know if you saw them, here they are again:

    Thurs 07-23,...Thurs 07-30, ...Tue 08-04,
    ...Fri 08-07, ...Tue 08-11, and ...Tue 08-18.

    These are likely pivots, or CITs, and are based on 13 mkt day counts. I track four of these cycles concurrently, and will be watching these dates as likely pivots.

  13. Small loss uempel... I'll be looking to re-enter short again tomorrow. I'm looking for a correction on Monday and Tuesday at least, maybe longer? I'll get out when it is oversold and maybe? go long for one more ride back up to 1014-whatever, and then go short again infront of the mid-August "one day crash". That's the plan, but who knows what I'll really do?

    Dan Black



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