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Thursday, July 16, 2009

07/16/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

Since nobody seems to believe overbought anymore so there’s no point to mention it here, as in the report last night, a typical rebound from a bottom last 4 to 6 days, and I personally, have no guts to chase here. CPC closed less than 0.8 again so this means 77% chances a green close tomorrow and yes, the “firework” goes on (until one day the market opens with a big down gap).


Well, something wrong with the SPY chart, it was a green close before…


  1. Cobra,

    Frustrations abound but not with you. The market does what it does.

    Thanks for the hard work.

    Thank you,

  2. Long TZA at closing bell. Added you site on my blog.

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  4. cobra,I think there's a computer glitch SPY closed @ 94.15

  5. Cobra ... thanks, very helpful.

    I posted the CPC info on Ace Trader blog with credit to CMV. Hopefully that brings a few more folks to your site.

    Appreciate the excellent updates and thanks for the "fireworks" heads up.


  6. I have a friend who oversees market data for a decent-sized firm. He says that they occasionally get these weird prices, but rarely on the close. The exchange is sticking with this 93.11 closing price for now. And Q's were off too.


  7. I wonder if this cobra guy actually trade in the market? or ever made money? everyday, he keeps saying short term overbought, but market keeps up. In down turn, he keep saying market is not bottom, not to buy.

    Cobra, I think you are becoming a clown now, so to stop making a fool out of yourself, and save some reputation, or has some shame for your family, you should shut down the blog site. Go to take some classes in finance, then come back to trade.

  8. Thanks for your hard work! Cobra!

  9. Anon, thanks for advising me to shut down the blog. But I've decided to give it a little more try. Hope you could understand.

  10. Thanks Cobra i'll remain net short until one of these moving averages is crossed.
    also here are some bear market rallies of the 30s

  11. This is for the mofo who posted at 6:27pm. Why don't you fuck off instead asking Cobra to shut down the blog, Motherfucker. Fuck you and fuck off is all I can give to you, bitch!

  12. Cobra:

    Always good stuff here. Ignore that anon ah.

    Do you have a reference for the 77% chance of an up day following a CPC <.80? TIA


  13. Fishbait, the 77% was count from the chart: 30/39 = 0.77. I like to use the most recent data instead of calculating the entire history records.

  14. Hi Cobra,
    can you explain a bit where you are getting the 77% chance of an up day tomorrow based on the Cboe PC closing value? I ran a few studies and just do not see it.


  15. The Small Fish, I simply count what happened recently on the chart when CPC < 0.8 plus some other conditions mentioned on the chart. You can count by yourself: green dashed lines vs red dashed lines which is 30:39 (I consider today's close as a green close).



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