Live Update

Friday, July 17, 2009

07/17/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

OK, I guess still nobody believes overbought so let’s just talk about “unique behaviors” only.

CPC < 0.8 again, so 78% chances a green close Monday and yes the “firework” is still on.


Also we have both VIX and SPX closed in red today, so 8 out of 11 times recently the next day closed in green. Well, we had lots of discussion about when both VIX and SPX closed in red last week here (see comments area). My way is just to emphasize the most recent behaviors.


So bears are hopeless? Well, there’s a slight chance here: CPCE < 0.56 which usually means an unpleasant day next day. I cannot show you the chart now as the CPCE char from simply doesn’t show correct readings until 7:30pm ET and this has been the problem for long long time. The 0.56 was calculated manually from the data obtained here:, 1378170 / 2441639 = 0.5644.

Personally, I still need to see the pullback to convince me that indeed a new high is ahead, so whether we’re having green or red Monday doesn’t matter. You have long, after 5 days almost 90 degree rises, you should’ve locked some profits now and if you don’t have long or unfortunately having short, at this stage, nothing you can do but wait.


  1. ChiOsc on the SPX daily chart looks a little strange. lol. I can't imagine chasing the market at these levels.

  2. Remember your "Cobra rule"? you say overbought / oversold for 3-4 days but mkt keep getting more and more extended. when you give up, then the next day it works! --- today DJI and NAZ are both green, so even if SPX slight red (due to OE), I would consider today an up day. so VIX red is not a divergence. ---- haha, you can tell that I am biased towards bearish view.

  3. Thanks as always!

  4. thanks a lot for the quick summary. clicking

  5. CPCE = 0.58 > 0.56 -> Bears are hopeless.

  6. This week was a constant short covering rally by those who went short at the H/S neackline break and were buying to cover after the GS earnings release reversed the game. Many then keep reshorting, including many day traders, only to have to cover a second or third time. It was like throwing a constant supply of twigs on the fire. I suspect that is overwith now with today's doji, but it's up to the market.

    There are some major MAs as resistance on the weekly and monthly charts at the current prices, so I'd like to think these will hold. The DOW also is at a downtrend resistance line:

  7. you interpreted the divergence between NYADV and NYUPV totally wrong, since the big space(the circle you drew)is at the bottom of the valley instead of its usual location at the top of the hill, it means the market is due to a rally, a huge rally infact, the rally wong stop untill they two lines converge back close to a single line, then you will find the true top.

  8. divergence between NYADV and NYUPV is very usefull but you read it wrong, if it is at the traut(spelling)or the bottom it means the S&P will rally, if it's at the peak, it means SP will drop. it happens the same in one day time frame chart pattern, I see it all the time.

  9. no problem:), ofcourse it all depends how the earning results for this week, if bad it will roll over and a circle of space will now be at the peak. The GS upgrades on S&P really can keep this rally for a longer time also.

  10. ED, thanks agian. The reason I didn't reply at first was I thought you posted in a wrong place (should've been in the daily recap), so I guess you might not come back to see my reply. Sorry about that.

    I have no idea if ER would be good or not, it seems that the market doesn't care.

  11. this is the only posting place showed up when I first posted yesterday. But yes, in earning seasons all down side signals will be ignored and I usually paid dear price for it. likely there won't be any meaningful down turn before earnings is over.



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