Live Update

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

07/15/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

If you don’t believe “overbought” anymore then it’d be a tough call tomorrow, otherwise high likely a down day tomorrow.

As seems mentioned everywhere, we had both SPX and VIX up on the same day, according to the chart below 8 out 9 times recently a down day next day.


Meanwhile we had CPC < 0.8 which not only triggered a “firework” trading setup but also means 76% chances a green day tomorrow.


Also today is a Major Accumulation Day (NYUPV:NYDNV  > 9) and from the chart below we can see, on a up swing, most likely the next day was a green day.


Personally, I still believe “overbought” therefore I won’t chase the “firework” here.


  1. Cobra ... I think your work is terrific. Come here every day to get a sense of what you were thinking!

    Speaking of that ... I'm curious as to why you didn't you mention the fireworks possibility in your daily wrap up yesterday or early tomorrow?

    That would have been important information to have going into today's market.

    Was there a specific reason you didn't mention it?


  2. Firework triggered today. I wish I could know yesterday. I'll mention firework in tonight's report.

  3. Cobra, we are going DOWN tomorrow. Look at the TRIN. it's way overbought..

    SPY 60 mins charts RSI , STOCH are way overbought

  4. I think protecting longs were the cause for spike in vix and some technical bounce.

    Market probably will peek next Tuesday or so.

    Always thanks for the update, cobra.

  5. This is confusing.
    Thanks a lot, Cobra.

  6. Cobra I have been reading your blog for a couple of months and always appreciate your well thought out insights.

    Since we are very close to the 935 resistance my thoughts are for a down day.

  7. Does aFei get charged per character for his/her responses?

    "Tnx. Ding"


    Nobody mentioned the 50-day was not even a speedbump? Nobody mentioned the June highs on Naz100 and Compq? Nothing?

  8. Here is the problem. Treasuries fell big today. Yes, normally that is a sign of recovery, but now, with a 2 trillion and growing deficit, it will be a disaster for stocks.

    I certainly can't pick a day when this rally will end, but I can say that as the 10 year bond approaches 4% any rally will fizzle.

  9. "Ding" means to up my post to the top in Chinese. Well since it's a blog, it has not point to "up" the post here.

  10. ur $nyupv:$nydnv cannot distinguish whether it was short coverings or not....




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