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Thursday, July 30, 2009

07/30/2009 Market Recap: Turning Point?


Could be a down day tomorrow.

Could be a turning point today or very close.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  

Because CPC < 0.7, so in the After Bell Quick Summary, I mentioned that higher chances a down day tomorrow. Just at that time, I wasn’t sure if I got the correct CPC readings. Now thanks for a reader, I’ve confirmed the readings form the official CBOE site at htttp:// Also, 2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, because CPCE < 0.56, see dashed red lines, this also means a down day tomorrow.


1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), After Bell Quick Summary mentioned that SPY now has 8 unfilled gaps. Here is another chart with more restrict gap criteria, 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), even so, it still has too many unfilled gaps. So I believe that today’s gap may likely be filled within a very short time.


T2103 Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, overbought plus negative divergence. The overbought signal is quite reliable from this chart.


0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, too many negative divergences. Especially NYADV and NYUPV, not only a “vacuum” divergence exists between them but also each have negative divergence on its own.


1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, black bar looks bearish to me.


7.6.0 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), could be a turning day today. (The chart has drawing problem, so the cycle is actually due today.)


To summarize, possibly we’re very close to a short-term top or even have already passed the short-term top, therefore I expect a little bit bigger pullback ahead. As for target, well, I’ll discuss after the pullback being confirmed in case the market slaps me on the face AGAIN tomorrow... LOL.


  1. Friday seems to have weak enough volume that anything can happen. I think it could be similar to June 12th where any dip tomorrow will be bought. Also, there is weekend short-covering to distort the picture. That being said, all bets are off Monday. Shorting here for a time horizon of over 1 session is a no brainer.

  2. Cobra, when is the next date when all the cycles converge?



  3. Oh... you found that tricky end of the month cycle... very tricky.

  4. Looking like gap up tomorrow again.
    I'll try some SDS early AM.

  5. Our fearless leader, the mighty $NDX, rang the bell today at the downtrend line, the price resistance line, and the 50% fib from the top, not to mention painting that ugly black shooting star candle. Top, perhaps, me thinks.

    $NDX Chart.

  6. That maybe another head-fake as well?

  7. Ntm, no converge for 3 years, I don't know after that, maybe they'll never converge.

  8. Cobra,
    ISEE starts the day (Fri 07-31) vastly over-believed, 0950 first reading is 213. Regards, Jim P.

  9. Wow...

    Your Cycle Watch is...


    What does that show, the confluence of all your various cycle indicators?

  10. Dave, yes, I put all the cycles I found together on the same chart.

    Jim, ISEE equities only index above 200 doesn't mean anything. I think I've discussed this a few days ago.

  11. cobra

    What are the criteria for the cycle?? by days? Looks like there are more than one cycle

  12. Yes, each different color represents a different cycle I found. As for criteria, I just sit there and try each significant low and high by using cycle too to see if I can find any meaningful cycles. All I found so far are on the chart now.

  13. I guess I'm confused as well. I just noticed in March there were two, one marked by a blue line, the other by a black line.

    Does today mark more than one cycle?

  14. March had all 3 cycles converged together.

    Yesterday, it had only one cycle reached.

  15. anybody else having problems getting on DISQUS??

    All blogs seem to be down...or least the comment sections.

  16. Hello Cobra, ...

    The STEM.MR models are doing terribly intraday,..stuck way below oversold, and staying down there even market goes higher. Any idea what is going on? Thanks in advance. Jim P.

  17. At 3:35pm, both SP500 and VIX are UP,...
    suggests a DOWN day on Monday? Thanks. Jim P.

  18. Jim, have you noticed that I didn't mention a single word about STEM.MR recently. I think the model is broken so it shouldn't be trusted. I won't use this model anymore. Instead I'll pay attention to Cum TICK.

  19. Jim, let's see how markt close today...

  20. SP just put in the same candle that the Shanghai Index topped out on a few days ago. Weekly candles are all topping candles ($NDX,SPX,INDU)but it doesn't matter since $SP closed the month above 955 and its the 5th up month in a row so I guess we're in a bull market. I capitulate!!!!

    Actually, McClellan summation index is near its all-time high levels and %5,%10 components of McOsc. are near early Jan,May levels so I am not worried about the new bull trend. Newsweek cover story tells us the top is here.

    ---Mr. Panic

  21. Cobra,

    Is it possible to figure out when all three cycles will converge next time?


  22. Cobra--New poster. Thanks for all the work you throw into this blog.

    RE: Your $SPX:$CPCE chart. If the $CPCE posts a .79 closing reading today, 7/31/09, would that count a trendline break signaling a possible reversal of SPY?

    orion.colorado (LG's board)

  23. Rik, I cannot see after July 2011, so have no idea.

  24. orion, SPX:CPCE only valid after 7:40pm ET, so don't read this chart now. This is a known data problem for many many years.



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