Live Update

Thursday, August 6, 2009

08/06/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I have no ideas about tomorrow, just whatever happens tomorrow, we might see an opposite at least at the beginning of the next week, as both my 7 trading day and 13 trading days cycles (vertical lines) are due tomorrow.


All eyes are on tomorrow’s payroll data. Here is an interesting article about what had happened in the past: Nonfarm Payroll Reports Since the Start of 2008. Looks to me, it doesn’t matter bad or good, the market will go wherever it wants to go…



  1. Cobra,

    I also think that same. The report doesn't matter, the market will go down either way. Since now GS is saying that the market would be at 1050 or 1100 by end of the year, that means we would not get the market top in the summer. Probably, GS is already short in this market.. LOL.... I don't think that Mutual Funds are jumping in the market to risk their portfolio for 50-100 poitns - not worth it....

    What you all think?

  2. All i can say is, stocks got too cheap for a while, they also will get overpriced for a while.
    This market will likely trend higher as it gets closer to yearend and i as well as many others got burnt shorting one too many times. I'm buying the dips from here on out. I wanted to short at 1014 ( was willing to start scaling in @ 1010 ) but only got 1008. The way i look at it, if i miss a peak to get short, i will just wait for a dip to get long. None of these trends last for more than a few weeks anyway!

    Hope we do get that dip to 950 as some are hoping, i would buy it gladly. I do think the market is looking for more than 100 points from here by yearend. I think 1150 is more like it. so dips to 950 will probably be bought by traders if no one else.

    I like the way you lay things out. If you're not sure, you just say so.

  3. Look how CSCO acted today.

    Simply too much fear of losing the rally...Setting up for decline later.

    Plus Fed pumping money into the system doesn't help bears either

  4. If every one is wating to short at 1014 then sure it will reverse before that (as it seems happening)
    Similarly, i feel, if every one is waiting to buy back at 950 then sure it will reverse at 970 arround or it may go back arround 900, if bears get little bit extra momentum...
    1008 to 900 and than to 1150 by year end..
    What are Elliot experts saying?....

  5. Here's what Robert Pretcher says (the founder of Elliotwave International)....

    EWI put out a monthly Financial Forecast (Hochberg) on the 31st as normal and said that a B of Z down about 30 points was due and then a C of Z to complete their primary wave 2 up and taking days to weeks to complete. It’s been Prechter’s position going back to when he said the “minimum EW requirements to end the bear wave had occurred” in March 9 that the coming rally would continue into Sept/Oct/Nov. Prechter’s continued measurement has been that sentiment must reach ‘primary degree’ excessiveness.

    The Short Term Update (Hochberg) started conditioning for an earlier rally end and mentioned Monday every up thrust in the rally has become successively weaker and that the C of Z might never materialize because the market is so weak.

    Well, I just received the Theorist about 10 minutes ago and it is unusual because Prechter normally publishes a bunch of socioeconomics cheerleading half way through the month, not now. And it was not the typical waste of bandwidth. He says that sentiment as measured by has reached primary-degree level….88% bulls. It is as high as October 9, 2007. He goes on to backpedal on Fib targets saying they have not reached typical wave 2 levels but the market is at a level of bullishness that a top could occur right here. He did leave the caveat that DJIA could continue to the 9654 or 9794 Fib if it continues straight up from here. Even if it continues up, he has dramatically collapsed his time expectations.

    On the dollar, his minimum wave 5 downside is met and it can start its multi year climb up. Can still go a little lower, but the minimum is met. When it turns, I'd expect the market is toast because of the inverse relationship of the two.

    Whatever your view of Prechter and his past failings, he’s called this bear better than anyone. I lost a lot of money by his missing the bottom in 2002, but he’s more than made up with his late July 2007 warning of an impending top and October 2007 confirmation of the top and his March 9, 2009 call for imminent end of the bear wave and beginning of the multi month rally.

    He’s putting everyone in cash pending the final confirmation of the top like he warned everyone March 9 to close shorts pending confirmation of the bears end.

    [As a note, the bottom of each EWI issuance grants permission to quote their publications as long as credit is given and I believe I've appropriately given credit.]

    >>>This was borrowed from Douala over at Evil Speculator. Credit goes to her.<<<

    Dan Black

  6. Cobra, I think the data above, it would serve better if we take in account of what happen prior to the job data (like a week before)? If it ran up, then good data already price in the sell the news... if it tank before the data then if data is bad, market will rise or flat because bad data already price in...



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